用扩散模型预测车辆跟驰轨迹,更准更真实。
FollowGen: A Scaled Noise Conditional Diffusion Model for Car-Following Trajectory Prediction
- 通过噪声缩放机制融合历史轨迹与车距信息
- 在真实场景中实现领先水平的轨迹预测精度
- 适合自动驾驶和智能交通系统研发者
车辆轨迹预测对自动驾驶和高级驾驶辅助系统至关重要。尽管基于深度学习的方法——尤其是基于Transformer和生成模型的方法——已显著提升预测准确率,通过捕捉车辆动力学与交通交互中的复杂非线性模式,但常忽略详细的跟驰行为及车辆间交互,尤其在完全自动驾驶或混合交通场景中表现不足。为此,本文提出一种用于车辆跟驰轨迹预测的规模化噪声条件扩散模型,将车辆间交互与跟驰动态整合进生成框架,提升预测轨迹的准确性和合理性。该模型采用新颖的流水线,在扩散过程中以编码的历史特征缩放噪声,有效捕捉历史车辆动态;特别地,利用基于交叉注意力的Transformer架构建模复杂的车辆间依赖关系,指导去噪过程,显著提升预测精度。在多种真实驾驶场景下的实验结果表明,所提方法达到当前最优性能且具备强鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Vehicle trajectory prediction is crucial for advancing autonomous driving and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Although deep learning-based approaches - especially those utilizing transformer-based and generative models - have markedly improved prediction accuracy by capturing complex, non-linear patterns in vehicle dynamics and traffic interactions, they frequently overlook detailed car-following behaviors and the inter-vehicle interactions critical for real-world driving applications, particularly in fully autonomous or mixed traffic scenarios. To address the issue, this study introduces a scaled noise conditional diffusion model for car-following trajectory prediction, which integrates detailed inter-vehicular interactions and car-following dynamics into a generative framework, improving both the accuracy and plausibility of predicted trajectories. The model utilizes a novel pipeline to capture historical vehicle dynamics by scaling noise with encoded historical features within the diffusion process. Particularly, it employs a cross-attention-based transformer architecture to model intricate inter-vehicle dependencies, effectively guiding the denoising process and enhancing prediction accuracy. Experimental results on diverse real-world driving scenarios demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance and robustness of the proposed method.
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