arXiv:2411.16807physics.ao-phcs.AI2024-11被引 19

用AI重构天气初始场,精度比传统方法高16%~33%

ADAF: An Artificial Intelligence Data Assimilation Framework for Weather Forecasting

  • 基于AI框架直接融合多源观测数据生成高分辨率初值
  • 在美陆地区域对近地面变量预测精度提升16%至33%
  • 适合需要快速处理海量观测的实时气象预报场景

数值天气预报模型的预报能力高度依赖于数据同化(DA)提供的精确初始条件。传统同化方法因复杂线性代数运算和高维模型,在非线性系统中常面临计算成本与精度之间的权衡,且实时处理海量数据需大量算力。为此,本文提出一种基于人工智能的数据同化框架(ADAF),用于生成千米级高精度分析场。该研究是首个利用来自不同地点、多种来源的真实观测数据(包括稀疏地表观测和卫星影像)验证AI方法在同化中有效性的工作。我们在美国本土(CONUS)对四个近地面变量实施了ADAF。结果表明,对于近地面大气状况,ADAF在准确性上优于高分辨率快速刷新同化系统(HRRRDAS)16%至33%,更贴近实际观测,并能有效重建极端事件(如热带气旋风场)。敏感性实验显示,即使背景场精度较低或地表观测极度稀疏,ADAF仍可生成高质量分析。ADAF可在三小时窗口内以低计算成本处理海量观测,在AMD MI200 GPU上仅需约两秒。该研究表明,ADAF在真实世界同化中兼具高效性与有效性,具备在业务天气预报中应用的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between computational cost and accuracy due to complex linear algebra computations and the high dimensionality of the model, especially in nonlinear systems. Moreover, processing massive data in real-time requires substantial computational resources. To address this, we introduce an artificial intelligence-based data assimilation framework (ADAF) to generate high-quality kilometer-scale analysis. This study is the pioneering work using real-world observations from varied locations and multiple sources to verify the AI method's efficacy in DA, including sparse surface weather observations and satellite imagery. We implemented ADAF for four near-surface variables in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicate that ADAF surpasses the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS) in accuracy by 16% to 33% for near-surface atmospheric conditions, aligning more closely with actual observations, and can effectively reconstruct extreme events, such as tropical cyclone wind fields. Sensitivity experiments reveal that ADAF can generate high-quality analysis even with low-accuracy backgrounds and extremely sparse surface observations. ADAF can assimilate massive observations within a three-hour window at low computational cost, taking about two seconds on an AMD MI200 graphics processing unit (GPU). ADAF has been shown to be efficient and effective in real-world DA, underscoring its potential role in operational weather forecasting.

天气预报AI同化实时计算

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