arXiv:2411.17284cs.LGcs.CL2024-11ICML被引 16

用大模型自动提取专家先验,减少标签需求,提升小样本预测效果。

AutoElicit: Using Large Language Models for Expert Prior Elicitation in Predictive Modelling

  • 从大模型中自动抽取领域知识构建预测模型先验
  • 相比无信息先验,显著降低误差且少用标签数据
  • 适合医疗等需可解释性、标签昂贵的场景

大型语言模型(LLMs)在多个领域积累了广泛知识,但其计算复杂度高、成本大且缺乏透明性,限制了其在隐私与可解释性要求高的预测任务中的直接应用。在医疗、生物和金融等领域,专用且可解释的线性模型仍具重要价值。由于标注数据稀缺或获取成本高,合理设定参数先验分布可通过贝叶斯推断降低学习样本复杂度。然而,专家先验的获取耗时费力。为此,我们提出 AutoElicit,通过 LLM 提取知识并构建预测模型先验。实验证明这些先验具有信息量,且可通过自然语言进一步优化。我们对比了 AutoElicit 与上下文学习的效果,发现其能显著降低误差,使用更少标签,并持续优于上下文学习。在基于痴呆患者传感器数据构建尿路感染预测模型时,AutoElicit 可节省超过 6 个月的标注工作量。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) acquire a breadth of information across various domains. However, their computational complexity, cost, and lack of transparency often hinder their direct application for predictive tasks where privacy and interpretability are paramount. In fields such as healthcare, biology, and finance, specialised and interpretable linear models still hold considerable value. In such domains, labelled data may be scarce or expensive to obtain. Well-specified prior distributions over model parameters can reduce the sample complexity of learning through Bayesian inference; however, eliciting expert priors can be time-consuming. We therefore introduce AutoElicit to extract knowledge from LLMs and construct priors for predictive models. We show these priors are informative and can be refined using natural language. We perform a careful study contrasting AutoElicit with in-context learning and demonstrate how to perform model selection between the two methods. We find that AutoElicit yields priors that can substantially reduce error over uninformative priors, using fewer labels, and consistently outperform in-context learning. We show that AutoElicit saves over 6 months of labelling effort when building a new predictive model for urinary tract infections from sensor recordings of people living with dementia.

大模型应用贝叶斯建模先验知识小样本学习

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