arXiv:2411.17450cs.LGcs.SI2024-11中稿 · ed被引 9

用图神经网络分析足球反击成功因素,区分男女球员表现。

A Graph Neural Network deep-dive into successful counterattacks

  • 构建性别特异的图神经网络建模反击成功率
  • 发现边线到边线速度、角度等特征影响最大
  • 开源数据与工具包,便于复现和改进研究

足球反击是球队在夺回球权后迅速由守转攻的高强度进攻策略,旨在通过少量传球快速推进并创造得分机会。本研究构建了针对男女球员的图神经网络模型,基于632场职业比赛(2020-2022年MLS、NWSL及国际赛事)的同步控球事件与时空追踪数据(共20863帧),预测反击成功概率。结果表明,性别特异性模型优于通用模型。通过置换特征重要性分析,发现边线到边线速度、向球角度、向球门角度及边线间速度为影响模型表现的关键节点特征。研究还提供方法指导,帮助探索无限解空间以优化球员决策。论文配套开源数据集与Python工具包,支持数据转图、训练、验证与预测,便于复现与进一步研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A counterattack in soccer is a high speed, high intensity direct attack that can occur when a team transitions from a defensive state to an attacking state after regaining possession of the ball. The aim is to create a goal-scoring opportunity by convering a lot of ground with minimal passes before the opposing team can recover their defensive shape. The purpose of this research is to build gender-specific Graph Neural Networks to model the likelihood of a counterattack being successful and uncover what factors make them successful in professional soccer. These models are trained on a total of 20863 frames of synchronized on-ball event and spatiotemporal (broadcast) tracking data. This dataset is derived from 632 games of MLS (2022), NWSL (2022) and international soccer (2020-2022). With this data we demonstrate that gender-specific Graph Neural Networks outperform architecturally identical gender-ambiguous models in predicting the successful outcome of counterattacks. We show, using Permutation Feature Importance, that byline to byline speed, angle to the goal, angle to the ball and sideline to sideline speed are the node features with the highest impact on model performance. Additionally, we offer some illustrative examples on how to navigate the infinite solution search space to aid in identifying improvements for player decision making. This research is accompanied by an open-source repository containing all data and code, and it is also accompanied by an open-source Python package which simplifies converting spatiotemporal data into graphs. This package also facilitates testing, validation, training and prediction with this data. This should allow the reader to replicate and improve upon our research more easily.

足球分析图神经网络反击策略数据驱动

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