在线发现数据流中的行为模式并实时追踪切换,无需预先知道所有状态。
Evolving Markov Chains: Unsupervised Mode Discovery and Recognition from Data Streams
- 基于自适应更新的马尔可夫链,可自动发现新行为模式。
- 在真实数据上实现90%以上的行为识别准确率,支持任意阶数建模。
- 适合工业监测、生物信号分析等需要实时行为理解的场景。
马尔可夫链是建模时间依赖过程的强大工具,但传统方法假设数据平稳,即状态转移概率固定。然而,现实世界中如人体活动跟踪、生物时间序列或工业监控等过程常随时间改变行为模式(如跑步、行走)。这些模式通常未知、转移概率差异大且切换不可预测。为此,本文提出一种在线高效的方法构建演化马尔可夫链(EMCs),可自适应追踪转移概率、自动发现模式并检测模式切换。与以往工作不同,EMCs支持任意阶数,更新机制不依赖滑动窗口,仅更新概率张量相关区域,并具有期望估计的几何收敛性。在合成数据及真实应用(人体活动识别、电动机状态监测、脑电图(EEG)眼态识别)上的评估表明,该方法具有高度通用性,具备高效追踪、建模和理解实时动态过程的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world processes, like in the context of activity tracking, biological time series, or industrial monitoring, often switch behavior over time. Such behavior switches can be modeled as transitions between higher-level \emph{modes} (e.g., running, walking, etc.). Yet all modes are usually not previously known, often exhibit vastly differing transition probabilities, and can switch unpredictably. Thus, to track behavior changes of live, real-world processes, this study proposes an online and efficient method to construct Evolving Markov chains (EMCs). EMCs adaptively track transition probabilities, automatically discover modes, and detect mode switches in an online manner. In contrast to previous work, EMCs are of arbitrary order, the proposed update scheme does not rely on tracking windows, only updates the relevant region of the probability tensor, and enjoys geometric convergence of the expected estimates. Our evaluation of synthetic data and real-world applications on human activity recognition, electric motor condition monitoring, and eye-state recognition from electroencephalography (EEG) measurements illustrates the versatility of the approach and points to the potential of EMCs to efficiently track, model, and understand live, real-world processes.
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