arXiv:2411.17770cs.LG2024-11被引 1

通过时空解耦分解,提升多变量时间序列预测的可解释性与准确性。

MTS-UNMixers: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Channel-Time Dual Unmixing

  • 从时序和通道双维度解耦信号,提取共享基函数与系数。
  • 在多个基准数据集上超越现有方法,显著提升预测精度。
  • 适合需要可解释性与长程依赖建模的工业时序分析场景。

多变量时间序列通过跨维度信息融合,为未来预测提供了稳健框架,在实际应用中具有广泛前景。然而,其高维性与混合模式带来了挑战:难以建立历史与未来序列间的可解释映射关系,并提取长程特征依赖。为此,我们提出一种用于多变量时间序列预测的通道-时间双解耦网络(MTS-UNMixer),将整个序列在时间和通道维度上分解为关键基函数与系数。该方法建立了历史与未来序列间的稳健共享机制,实现精准表征并增强物理可解释性。具体而言,时间序列被表示为多重趋势与周期的混合,其时间相关表示系数在历史与未来时段间共享;而通道维度上的序列可分解为多个时刻相关的基函数,刻画通道间相关性,并在整个序列中共享。为估计共享的时间依赖系数,采用基础Mamba网络,利用其对方向因果性的对齐能力;而双向Mamba网络用于建模共享的通道相关基函数,以处理非因果关系。实验表明,MTS-UNMixers在多个基准数据集上显著优于现有方法。代码已开源:https://github.com/ZHU-0108/MTS-UNMixers。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multivariate time series data provide a robust framework for future predictions by leveraging information across multiple dimensions, ensuring broad applicability in practical scenarios. However, their high dimensionality and mixing patterns pose significant challenges in establishing an interpretable and explicit mapping between historical and future series, as well as extracting long-range feature dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose a channel-time dual unmixing network for multivariate time series forecasting (named MTS-UNMixer), which decomposes the entire series into critical bases and coefficients across both the time and channel dimensions. This approach establishes a robust sharing mechanism between historical and future series, enabling accurate representation and enhancing physical interpretability. Specifically, MTS-UNMixers represent sequences over time as a mixture of multiple trends and cycles, with the time-correlated representation coefficients shared across both historical and future time periods. In contrast, sequence over channels can be decomposed into multiple tick-wise bases, which characterize the channel correlations and are shared across the whole series. To estimate the shared time-dependent coefficients, a vanilla Mamba network is employed, leveraging its alignment with directional causality. Conversely, a bidirectional Mamba network is utilized to model the shared channel-correlated bases, accommodating noncausal relationships. Experimental results show that MTS-UNMixers significantly outperform existing methods on multiple benchmark datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/ZHU-0108/MTS-UNMixers.

时间序列多变量可解释性Mamba

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