用可解释的KAN网络提升个人信用违约预测精度与透明度
KACDP: A Highly Interpretable Credit Default Prediction Model
- 首次将可学习激活函数的KAN网络用于信用风险预测
- 在ROC_AUC和F1值上优于主流模型
- 通过特征重要性分析实现决策过程可视化,适合金融监管场景
在金融领域,个人信用违约预测至关重要。现有方法普遍存在可解释性不足、透明度低,且在处理高维非线性数据时性能受限。本文首次将基于科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络(KANs)的新一代神经网络架构引入个人信用风险预测,构建了科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德信用违约预测模型(KACDP)。KANs具有可学习的激活函数和无显式线性权重的特点,更擅长捕捉复杂多维数据关系。实验表明,KACDP在ROC_AUC和F1值等指标上均优于主流信用违约预测模型。同时,通过特征归因得分与模型结构可视化,清晰揭示了模型决策逻辑及各特征重要性,为金融机构提供了透明可解释的决策依据,满足行业对模型可解释性的严格要求。结论表明,KACDP在个人信用风险预测中兼具优异性能与良好可解释性,有效弥补了现有方法的不足,为金融机构提供了一种新的实用工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In the field of finance, the prediction of individual credit default is of vital importance. However, existing methods face problems such as insufficient interpretability and transparency as well as limited performance when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear data. To address these issues, this paper introduces a method based on Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). KANs is a new type of neural network architecture with learnable activation functions and no linear weights, which has potential advantages in handling complex multi-dimensional data. Specifically, this paper applies KANs to the field of individual credit risk prediction for the first time and constructs the Kolmogorov-Arnold Credit Default Predict (KACDP) model. Experiments show that the KACDP model outperforms mainstream credit default prediction models in performance metrics (ROC_AUC and F1 values). Meanwhile, through methods such as feature attribution scores and visualization of the model structure, the model's decision-making process and the importance of different features are clearly demonstrated, providing transparent and interpretable decision-making basis for financial institutions and meeting the industry's strict requirements for model interpretability. In conclusion, the KACDP model constructed in this paper exhibits excellent predictive performance and satisfactory interpretability in individual credit risk prediction, providing an effective way to address the limitations of existing methods and offering a new and practical credit risk prediction tool for financial institutions.
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