arXiv:2411.18656stat.MLcs.AI2024-11被引 1

AI模型常误把相关当因果,可能引发严重社会风险。

The Return of Pseudosciences in Artificial Intelligence: Have Machine Learning and Deep Learning Forgotten Lessons from Statistics and History?

  • 用统计学视角指出深度学习忽视相关不等于因果
  • 实证显示当前方法易生成荒谬的因果推断
  • 强调需重构模型、改进评估并保留人工监督

当今基于机器学习的AI应用广泛,涵盖医疗诊断、银行信用评估、视频监控和面部图像预测政治或性取向等任务。这些以深度学习为主的方法凭借处理海量复杂数据的能力,在多层特征中提取复杂关联方面表现优异。然而本文认为,这些方法的设计者与使用者已遗忘统计学的基本教训:相关不等于因果。大多数前沿模型不仅忽略此原则,还常生成荒谬或错误的因果模型,类似社会占星术或相面术。因此,仅通过减少训练数据偏差来提升AI伦理的做法并不足够。我们通过实例表明,唯有彻底重构核心模型、改进质量评估指标与政策,并持续保持人类监督,才能有效缓解此类方法带来的潜在危害。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In today's world, AI programs powered by Machine Learning are ubiquitous, and have achieved seemingly exceptional performance across a broad range of tasks, from medical diagnosis and credit rating in banking, to theft detection via video analysis, and even predicting political or sexual orientation from facial images. These predominantly deep learning methods excel due to their extraordinary capacity to process vast amounts of complex data to extract complex correlations and relationship from different levels of features. In this paper, we contend that the designers and final users of these ML methods have forgotten a fundamental lesson from statistics: correlation does not imply causation. Not only do most state-of-the-art methods neglect this crucial principle, but by doing so they often produce nonsensical or flawed causal models, akin to social astrology or physiognomy. Consequently, we argue that current efforts to make AI models more ethical by merely reducing biases in the training data are insufficient. Through examples, we will demonstrate that the potential for harm posed by these methods can only be mitigated by a complete rethinking of their core models, improved quality assessment metrics and policies, and by maintaining humans oversight throughout the process.

AI伦理因果推理深度学习

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