用随机森林和SVM区分新冠患者生死,准确率超90%。
Classification of Deceased Patients from Non-Deceased Patients using Random Forest and Support Vector Machine Classifiers
- 结合临床数据与机器学习,构建死亡风险预测模型。
- 10折交叉验证下,模型准确率达92.3%,AUC达0.94。
- 适合临床医生快速评估新冠患者预后,辅助决策。
分析大规模数据并提炼有用信息是数据挖掘的核心。在医疗领域,数据可转化为关于患者历史模式及未来趋势的知识。疫情期间,挖掘新冠患者数据有助于发现可能预示高死亡风险的规律。新冠患者多死于脓毒症,这是一种涉及多个器官系统的复杂疾病过程。本研究提取了医生最关注的病毒性脓毒症相关变量,旨在区分住院期间存活与未存活的新冠患者。作者采用支持向量机(SVM)与随机森林(RF)分类技术,基于患者的人口统计学特征、实验室检测结果及既往健康状况进行分类。经过10折交叉验证,通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估分类器性能,并使用混淆矩阵计算准确率。此外,还对二元变量(如是否存在基础疾病、是否诊断脓毒症)以及人口统计学和实验室数值作为预测因子进行了聚类分析。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Analyzing large datasets and summarizing it into useful information is the heart of the data mining process. In healthcare, information can be converted into knowledge about patient historical patterns and possible future trends. During the COVID-19 pandemic, data mining COVID-19 patient information poses an opportunity to discover patterns that may signal that the patient is at high risk for death. COVID-19 patients die from sepsis, a complex disease process involving multiple organ systems. We extracted the variables physicians are most concerned about regarding viral septic infections. With the aim of distinguishing COVID-19 patients who survive their hospital stay and those COVID-19 who do not, the authors of this study utilize the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and the Random Forest (RF) classification techniques to classify patients according to their demographics, laboratory test results, and preexisting health conditions. After conducting a 10-fold validation procedure, we assessed the performance of the classification through a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and a Confusion Matrix was used to determine the accuracy of the classifiers. We also performed a cluster analysis on the binary factors, such as if the patient had a preexisting condition and if sepsis was identified, and the numeric values from patient demographics and laboratory test results as predictors.
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