针对风电因调度中断导致的预测难题,提出更高效可靠的建模方法。
On autoregressive deep learning models for day-ahead wind power forecasting with irregular shutdowns due to redispatching
- 采用自回归深度学习模型与风电曲线建模对比分析
- 曲线建模法误差更低,计算更高效且数据清洗需求少
- 适合大规模分布式风电实时调度场景应用
随着传统电厂逐步退出,可再生能源在电网调度中的作用日益重要。为实现风电(WP)在日前调度计划中的替代应用,需准确的日前发电量预测。然而,由于调度干预导致的风电机组不规则停机,给预测模型带来挑战。现有主流方法结合历史发电数据与日前天气预报,但停机事件会影响预测精度。本文分析了三种自回归深度学习方法与基于风电曲线建模的方法在包含规律与不规律停机的数据集上的表现。结果表明,曲线建模方法不仅预测误差更低,对数据清洗要求更少,且计算效率更高,更适合大规模本地化陆上风电场的自动化部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Renewable energies and their operation are becoming increasingly vital for the stability of electrical power grids since conventional power plants are progressively being displaced, and their contribution to redispatch interventions is thereby diminishing. In order to consider renewable energies like Wind Power (WP) for such interventions as a substitute, day-ahead forecasts are necessary to communicate their availability for redispatch planning. In this context, automated and scalable forecasting models are required for the deployment to thousands of locally-distributed onshore WP turbines. Furthermore, the irregular interventions into the WP generation capabilities due to redispatch shutdowns pose challenges in the design and operation of WP forecasting models. Since state-of-the-art forecasting methods consider past WP generation values alongside day-ahead weather forecasts, redispatch shutdowns may impact the forecast. Therefore, the present paper highlights these challenges and analyzes state-of-the-art forecasting methods on data sets with both regular and irregular shutdowns. Specifically, we compare the forecasting accuracy of three autoregressive Deep Learning (DL) methods to methods based on WP curve modeling. Interestingly, the latter achieve lower forecasting errors, have fewer requirements for data cleaning during modeling and operation while being computationally more efficient, suggesting their advantages in practical applications.
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