arXiv:2412.03038q-fin.PMcs.AI2024-12中稿 · VLDB 2025被引 7

提出可调控风险的多目标投资组合框架,兼顾收益与风险控制。

MILLION: A General Multi-Objective Framework with Controllable Risk for Portfolio Management

  • 分两阶段优化:先提升收益预测,再精细调节风险水平。
  • 实测在3个真实数据集上表现优于传统方法,风险可控且收益更高。
  • 适合金融AI研究者与量化投资团队参考应用。

投资组合管理是金融科技中重要而具挑战性的任务,旨在分配资产以平衡收益与风险。本文提出通用多目标投资组合管理框架MILLION,包含两个阶段:收益相关最大化与风险控制。在收益最大化阶段,引入收益率预测和排序两个辅助目标,结合投资组合优化,缓解过拟合问题,提升模型对未来市场的泛化能力。在风险控制阶段,提出组合插值与组合改进两种方法,实现细粒度风险调控和快速适应用户指定风险水平。理论证明,当目标风险水平处于合理区间时,组合插值可实现精确风险控制;且在有效模型前提下,调整后组合的收益不低于最小方差优化结果。组合改进方法可在相同风险水平下获得更高收益。在三个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,该框架在效果与效率上均具优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Portfolio management is an important yet challenging task in AI for FinTech, which aims to allocate investors' budgets among different assets to balance the risk and return of an investment. In this study, we propose a general Multi-objectIve framework with controLLable rIsk for pOrtfolio maNagement (MILLION), which consists of two main phases, i.e., return-related maximization and risk control. Specifically, in the return-related maximization phase, we introduce two auxiliary objectives, i.e., return rate prediction, and return rate ranking, combined with portfolio optimization to remit the overfitting problem and improve the generalization of the trained model to future markets. Subsequently, in the risk control phase, we propose two methods, i.e., portfolio interpolation and portfolio improvement, to achieve fine-grained risk control and fast risk adaption to a user-specified risk level. For the portfolio interpolation method, we theoretically prove that the risk can be perfectly controlled if the to-be-set risk level is in a proper interval. In addition, we also show that the return rate of the adjusted portfolio after portfolio interpolation is no less than that of the min-variance optimization, as long as the model in the reward maximization phase is effective. Furthermore, the portfolio improvement method can achieve greater return rates while keeping the same risk level compared to portfolio interpolation. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework.

投资组合多目标优化风险控制FinTech

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