arXiv:2412.03068cs.LGcs.AI2024-12

用扩散模型融合多领域数据,提升时间序列跨域预测泛化能力。

Domain Fusion Controllable Generalization for Cross-Domain Time Series Forecasting from Multi-Domain Integrated Distribution

  • 通过扩散模型统一建模多领域数据分布,直接生成目标域预测序列。
  • 在49个基准上超越30个基线,零样本泛化性能显著提升。
  • 适合需要跨域迁移的时间序列预测场景,如金融、医疗等复杂领域。

传统深度模型在时间序列预测中取得巨大成功,但在跨域泛化面临挑战,因统计先验无法应对各领域间巨大分布偏移。本文提出首个基于扩散模型的时序通用化方法TimeControl,开创性地采用领域融合范式,将多个时序领域的信息整合到统一生成过程中。与自回归模型不同,TimeControl利用扩散去噪过程建模跨域数据的混合分布,通过条件采样直接生成目标域预测序列。其核心设计包括:(1) 条件网络捕捉观测序列的多尺度波动模式,作为上下文表示引导去噪网络;(2) 基于适配器的微调策略,利用预训练阶段学习的多域通用表示服务于下游任务;(3) 创新混合架构对齐观测与预测空间,支持任意长度预测序列生成。在主流49个基准和30个基线上的大量实验表明,TimeControl在所有数据域上均优于现有方法,展现出卓越的零样本泛化能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conventional deep models have achieved unprecedented success in time series forecasting. However, facing the challenge of cross-domain generalization, existing studies utilize statistical prior as prompt engineering fails under the huge distribution shift among various domains. In this paper, a novel time series generalization diffusion model (TimeControl) that pioneers the Domain-Fusion paradigm, systematically integrating information from multiple time series domains into a unified generative process via diffusion models. Unlike the autoregressive models that capture the conditional probabilities of the prediction horizon to the historical sequence, we use the diffusion denoising process to model the mixed distribution of the cross-domain data and generate the prediction sequence for the target domain directly utilizing conditional sampling. The proposed TimeControl contains three pivotal designs: (1) The condition network captures the multi-scale fluctuation patterns from the observation sequence, which are utilized as context representations to guide the denoising network to generate the prediction sequence; (2) Adapter-based fine-tuning strategy, the multi-domain universal representation learned in the pretraining stage is utilized for downstream tasks in target domains; (3) A novel hybrid architecture is designed to align the observation and prediction spaces, enabling TimeControl to generate prediction sequences of arbitrary lengths with flexibility. We conduct extensive experiments on mainstream 49 benchmarks and 30 baselines, and the TimeControl outperforms existing baselines on all data domains, exhibiting superior zero-shot generalization ability.

时间序列跨域泛化扩散模型预测

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