用大模型模拟真实出行路线选择,还能解释决策原因。
AI-Driven Day-to-Day Route Choice
- 构建带记忆的大模型代理LLMTraveler,融合过往经验与个性特征做决策。
- 在单起点终点场景下,其换路行为与实验数据吻合,传统模型无法完全解释。
- 在多起点终点网络中表现媲美经典模型,适合政策模拟与行为分析。
理解出行者路线选择有助于制定正常与异常情况下的最优运营与规划策略。然而,现有选择建模方法常依赖预设假设,难以捕捉出行行为的动态适应性。近年来,大语言模型(LLMs)展现出在多个领域复现人类行为的潜力。尽管如此,其在交通场景中准确模拟路线选择的能力仍存疑。本文通过引入一个基于大模型的智能体「LLMTraveler」,系统评估其在日间路线选择中的表现。该代理以大模型为核心,配备记忆系统,通过平衡检索信息与个性特征进行决策。研究在两个阶段的日常拥堵博弈中验证其能力:(1) 单起讫点对场景下,其换路行为与实验室数据一致,但无法被传统模型完全解释;(2) 在Ortuzar和Willumsen(OW)网络的多起讫点场景中,其自适应学习能力与多项式逻辑(MNL)及强化学习(RL)模型结果相当。结果表明,该框架能部分复现人类决策,并提供自然语言解释,为交通政策制定(如新政策或网络变化下的乘客响应模拟)提供重要参考。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Understanding travelers' route choices can help policymakers devise optimal operational and planning strategies for both normal and abnormal circumstances. However, existing choice modeling methods often rely on predefined assumptions and struggle to capture the dynamic and adaptive nature of travel behavior. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative, demonstrating remarkable ability to replicate human-like behaviors across various fields. Despite this potential, their capacity to accurately simulate human route choice behavior in transportation contexts remains doubtful. To satisfy this curiosity, this paper investigates the potential of LLMs for route choice modeling by introducing an LLM-empowered agent, "LLMTraveler." This agent integrates an LLM as its core, equipped with a memory system that learns from past experiences and makes decisions by balancing retrieved data and personality traits. The study systematically evaluates the LLMTraveler's ability to replicate human-like decision-making through two stages of day-to-day (DTD) congestion games: (1) analyzing its route-switching behavior in single origin-destination (OD) pair scenarios, where it demonstrates patterns that align with laboratory data but cannot be fully explained by traditional models, and (2) testing its capacity to model adaptive learning behaviors in multi-OD scenarios on the Ortuzar and Willumsen (OW) network, producing results comparable to Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. These experiments demonstrate that the framework can partially replicate human-like decision-making in route choice while providing natural language explanations for its decisions. This capability offers valuable insights for transportation policymaking, such as simulating traveler responses to new policies or changes in the network.
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