arXiv:2412.04475physics.ao-phcs.LG2024-12被引 3

用深度学习提升全球海洋热浪预测精度,支持长达六个月的预报。

Advancing Marine Heatwave Forecasts: An Integrated Deep Learning Approach

  • 融合图结构、不平衡回归与时间扩散模型,捕捉海温异常时空特征。
  • 在多个关键海域超越传统数值模型,六月预报误差显著降低。
  • 开源海温异常图数据集,适合气候建模与机器学习研究者使用。

海洋热浪(MHWs)是受气候变化加剧的极端气候现象,对海洋生态系统和产业构成重大威胁。本文提出一种集成深度学习方法,实现全球范围短至长期的MHW预测。该方法结合图表示学习以建模气候数据的空间特性、不平衡回归处理数据分布偏斜,并引入时间扩散机制提升不同预报时效下的准确性。据我们所知,这是首个将三种时空异常建模方法融合用于MHW预测的研究。同时,本文提出一种避免孤立节点的图构建方法,并发布一个公开可用的海表温度异常图数据集。我们分析了损失函数与评估指标的选择权衡,通过聚焦历史热点区域,揭示全球MHW可预测性的空间格局。结果表明,在中南太平洋、非洲附近赤道大西洋、南大西洋及高纬度印度洋等区域,本方法优于传统数值模型。此外,时间扩散可替代传统滑动窗口,实现长达六个月的预测改进。这些发现不仅为机器学习在MHW预测中的应用建立基准,也深化了对通用气候预报方法的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning approach to forecast short-to-long-term MHWs on a global scale. The approach combines graph representation for modeling spatial properties in climate data, imbalanced regression to handle skewed data distributions, and temporal diffusion to enhance forecast accuracy across various lead times. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that synthesizes three spatiotemporal anomaly methodologies to predict MHWs. Additionally, we introduce a method for constructing graphs that avoids isolated nodes and provide a new publicly available sea surface temperature anomaly graph dataset. We examine the trade-offs in the selection of loss functions and evaluation metrics for MHWs. We analyze spatial patterns in global MHW predictability by focusing on historical hotspots, and our approach demonstrates better performance compared to traditional numerical models in regions such as the middle south Pacific, equatorial Atlantic near Africa, south Atlantic, and high-latitude Indian Ocean. We highlight the potential of temporal diffusion to replace the conventional sliding window approach for long-term forecasts, achieving improved prediction up to six months in advance. These insights not only establish benchmarks for machine learning applications in MHW forecasting but also enhance understanding of general climate forecasting methodologies.

海洋热浪深度学习气候预测时间扩散

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。