用机器学习预测脑动脉瘤破裂风险,但效果尚未超越现有临床标准。
Machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms: a systematic review
- 整合20项研究共2万余例动脉瘤数据,评估机器学习模型表现。
- 模型准确率在66%至90%之间,部分研究结果不一致。
- 当前证据不足,需更多多中心前瞻性研究验证其临床价值。
蛛网膜下腔出血是颅内动脉瘤破裂的致命后果,但难以预测哪些动脉瘤会破裂。预防性治疗本身也有风险,因此识别高破裂风险的动脉瘤具有重要临床意义。本系统综述旨在评估机器学习算法在预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险方面的表现。通过检索MEDLINE、Embase、Cochrane图书馆和Web of Science至2023年12月,共筛选出10,307条记录,最终纳入20项研究,涵盖20,286例动脉瘤病例。机器学习模型的性能准确率为0.66–0.90。其中六项研究将模型与现有临床标准进行对比,结果混杂。多数研究存在高或不确定的偏倚风险,且适用性存疑,限制了结论推断。由于数据异质性过高,无法进行荟萃分析。结论:机器学习可用于预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险,但尚无充分证据证明其优于现有实践,因此作为临床辅助工具的作用受限。未来需开展针对最新机器学习工具的前瞻性多中心研究,以证实其临床有效性后方可应用于临床。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Purpose: Subarachnoid haemorrhage is a potentially fatal consequence of intracranial aneurysm rupture, however, it is difficult to predict if aneurysms will rupture. Prophylactic treatment of an intracranial aneurysm also involves risk, hence identifying rupture-prone aneurysms is of substantial clinical importance. This systematic review aims to evaluate the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting intracranial aneurysm rupture risk. Methods: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched until December 2023. Studies incorporating any machine learning algorithm to predict the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). PROSPERO registration: CRD42023452509. Results: Out of 10,307 records screened, 20 studies met the eligibility criteria for this review incorporating a total of 20,286 aneurysm cases. The machine learning models gave a 0.66-0.90 range for performance accuracy. The models were compared to current clinical standards in six studies and gave mixed results. Most studies posed high or unclear risks of bias and concerns for applicability, limiting the inferences that can be drawn from them. There was insufficient homogenous data for a meta-analysis. Conclusions: Machine learning can be applied to predict the risk of rupture for intracranial aneurysms. However, the evidence does not comprehensively demonstrate superiority to existing practice, limiting its role as a clinical adjunct. Further prospective multicentre studies of recent machine learning tools are needed to prove clinical validation before they are implemented in the clinic.
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