用时序大模型预测井筒数据并检测异常,零样本也能精准识别钻井风险。
Leveraging Time-Series Foundation Model for Subsurface Well Logs Prediction and Anomaly Detection
- 基于Transformer架构的TimeGPT模型,通过微调实现井眼数据预测与异常检测。
- 预测准确率最高达87% R²,平均误差仅1.95%,异常检测整体准确率达93%。
- 支持零样本推理,适合地质复杂区域的勘探决策与风险预警场景。
能源需求上升凸显地下储层表征的重要性,但高质量井筒测井数据获取成本高、常存在缺失问题。现有机器学习方法难以捕捉测井序列中的非线性关系和长期依赖,且新数据集需重新训练,部署受限于同一盆地。本文探索并评估了基于Transformer架构与生成预训练的时序基础模型在测井数据预测与异常检测中的潜力。具体采用TimeGPT模型进行微调,以预测关键测井响应并检测异常。结果表明,该模型性能优异:预测R²最高达87%,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)低至1.95%;同时具备零样本能力,成功识别出钻井隐患或异常地质构造等细微异常,整体准确率达93%。该模型显著提升预测精度与计算效率,支持零样本推理,可增强勘探决策能力,降低地下开发风险,在复杂地质环境中具有重要应用前景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rise in energy demand highlights the importance of suitable subsurface storage, requiring detailed and accurate subsurface characterization often reliant on high-quality borehole well log data. However, obtaining complete well-log data is costly and time-consuming, with missing data being common due to borehole conditions or tool errors. While machine learning and deep learning algorithms have been implemented to address these issues, they often fail to capture the intricate, nonlinear relationships and long-term dependencies in complex well log sequences. Additionally, prior AI-driven models typically require retraining when introduced to new datasets and are constrained to deployment in the same basin. In this study, we explored and evaluated the potential of a time-series foundation model leveraging transformer architecture and a generative pre-trained approach for predicting and detecting anomalies in borehole well log data. Specifically, we fine-tuned and adopted the TimeGPT architecture to forecast key log responses and detect anomalies with high accuracy. Our proposed model demonstrated excellent performance, achieving R2 of up to 87% and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as low as 1.95%. Additionally, the model's zero-shot capability successfully identified subtle yet critical anomalies, such as drilling hazards or unexpected geological formations, with an overall accuracy of 93%. The model represents a significant advancement in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency, enabling zero-shot inference through fine-tuning. Its application in well-log prediction enhances operational decision-making while reducing risks associated with subsurface exploration. These findings demonstrate the model's potential to transform well-log data analysis, particularly in complex geological settings.
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