融合深度学习与状态空间模型,提升电力系统多变量时序预测精度。
PowerMamba: A Deep State Space Model and Comprehensive Benchmark for Time Series Prediction in Electric Power Systems
- 结合状态空间模型与深度学习,捕捉多序列动态变化规律。
- 平均预测误差降低7%,模型参数减少43%。
- 开源数据集与工具箱,适合电力系统研究者使用。
电力行业正因需求电气化、可再生能源大规模接入及新技术涌现而经历深刻变革,导致电网波动性增强、运行不确定性上升,难以保障可靠运行。为弥补预测与实际电网结果间的差距,亟需先进的时间序列预测模型。本文提出一种融合传统状态空间模型与深度学习的多变量时间序列预测方法,可同时捕捉多个时间序列的内在动态。设计了一种时序处理模块,将高分辨率外部预报信息融入序列到序列预测模型,实现模型规模几乎不变且精度无损。此外,发布了涵盖五年负荷、电价、辅助服务价格和可再生能源发电量的扩展数据集。配套提供开源工具箱,包含所提模型、数据集及多种先进预测模型,构建统一基准评估框架。实验表明,该模型在多项预测任务中优于现有方法,平均预测误差降低7%,模型参数减少43%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The electricity sector is undergoing substantial transformations due to the rising electrification of demand, enhanced integration of renewable energy resources, and the emergence of new technologies. These changes are rendering the electric grid more volatile and unpredictable, making it difficult to maintain reliable operations. In order to address these issues, advanced time series prediction models are needed for closing the gap between the forecasted and actual grid outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate time series prediction model that combines traditional state space models with deep learning methods to simultaneously capture and predict the underlying dynamics of multiple time series. Additionally, we design a time series processing module that incorporates high-resolution external forecasts into sequence-to-sequence prediction models, achieving this with negligible increases in size and no loss of accuracy. We also release an extended dataset spanning five years of load, electricity price, ancillary service price, and renewable generation. To complement this dataset, we provide an open-access toolbox that includes our proposed model, the dataset itself, and several state-of-the-art prediction models, thereby creating a unified framework for benchmarking advanced machine learning approaches. Our findings indicate that the proposed model outperforms existing models across various prediction tasks, improving state-of-the-art prediction error by an average of 7% and decreasing model parameters by 43%.
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