arXiv:2412.06866cs.LGcs.AI2024-12被引 5

通过可学习多尺度分解与自相关建模,提升时间序列预测精度与效率。

LMS-AutoTSF: Learnable Multi-Scale Decomposition and Integrated Autocorrelation for Time Series Forecasting

  • 采用双编码器在多尺度上学习趋势与季节成分的频率域过滤
  • 结合滞后差分自相关机制,有效捕捉长时依赖关系
  • 轻量设计适配多场景,适合工业与金融时序预测

时间序列预测在气象预报、股市分析、科学模拟和工业过程分析等领域具有重要意义。本文提出LMS-AutoTSF,一种新型时间序列预测架构,融合自相关机制并利用双编码器在多尺度上运行。不同于依赖预设趋势与季节成分的模型,LMS-AutoTSF在每个尺度上使用两个独立编码器:一个用于低通滤波以捕捉趋势,另一个通过高通滤波建模季节变化。这些滤波器可学习,使模型能在频域动态分离趋势与季节成分。核心创新在于引入自相关,通过计算时间步的滞后差分,更有效地捕捉时间依赖性。每个编码器通过全连接层处理时序与通道交互。结合频域滤波、基于自相关的时序建模与通道变换,该模型不仅精准捕捉长期依赖与细粒度模式,且相比现有方法更具效率。其轻量化设计实现更快处理速度,同时在多种时间跨度下保持高预测精度。源码已公开于 url{http://github.com/mribrahim/LMS-TSF}。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is an important challenge with significant applications in areas such as weather prediction, stock market analysis, scientific simulations and industrial process analysis. In this work, we introduce LMS-AutoTSF, a novel time series forecasting architecture that incorporates autocorrelation while leveraging dual encoders operating at multiple scales. Unlike models that rely on predefined trend and seasonal components, LMS-AutoTSF employs two separate encoders per scale: one focusing on low-pass filtering to capture trends and the other utilizing high-pass filtering to model seasonal variations. These filters are learnable, allowing the model to dynamically adapt and isolate trend and seasonal components directly in the frequency domain. A key innovation in our approach is the integration of autocorrelation, achieved by computing lagged differences in time steps, which enables the model to capture dependencies across time more effectively. Each encoder processes the input through fully connected layers to handle temporal and channel interactions. By combining frequency-domain filtering, autocorrelation-based temporal modeling, and channel-wise transformations, LMS-AutoTSF not only accurately captures long-term dependencies and fine-grained patterns but also operates more efficiently compared to other state-of-the-art methods. Its lightweight design ensures faster processing while maintaining high precision in forecasting across diverse time horizons. The source code is publicly available at \url{http://github.com/mribrahim/LMS-TSF}

时间序列自相关多尺度轻量模型

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