arXiv:2412.07193cs.LGstat.ML2024-12

用灰箱贝叶斯优化高效校准复杂流行病模型,提升预测精度与收敛速度。

Epidemiological Model Calibration via Graybox Bayesian Optimization

  • 利用高斯过程替代昂贵模型,结合模型结构特性构建灰箱优化框架
  • 在真实疫情数据上降低对数均方误差,加速贝叶斯优化收敛
  • 适用于复杂模型如基于个体的模拟,适合流行病学建模研究者

本文针对一类分室流行病模型的校准问题,提出基于灰箱贝叶斯优化(BO)的高效校准方法。现有方法通常假设模型输出与梯度计算廉价,但在扩展至更一般场景时可能不适用。为此,我们引入以高斯过程为代理模型的灰箱策略,利用分室模型的函数结构特征提升校准性能;同时设计解耦决策策略,进一步挖掘结构可分解性。在模拟真实疫情过程生成的数据及真实世界新冠数据集上评估多种方案,实验表明所提灰箱变体显著提升计算代价大模型的校准效率,降低对数均方误差,并加快贝叶斯优化迭代中的性能收敛。该方法有望推广至更复杂的基于个体的流行病模型中。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this study, we focus on developing efficient calibration methods via Bayesian decision-making for the family of compartmental epidemiological models. The existing calibration methods usually assume that the compartmental model is cheap in terms of its output and gradient evaluation, which may not hold in practice when extending them to more general settings. Therefore, we introduce model calibration methods based on a "graybox" Bayesian optimization (BO) scheme, more efficient calibration for general epidemiological models. This approach uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate to the expensive model, and leverages the functional structure of the compartmental model to enhance calibration performance. Additionally, we develop model calibration methods via a decoupled decision-making strategy for BO, which further exploits the decomposable nature of the functional structure. The calibration efficiencies of the multiple proposed schemes are evaluated based on various data generated by a compartmental model mimicking real-world epidemic processes, and real-world COVID-19 datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed graybox variants of BO schemes can efficiently calibrate computationally expensive models and further improve the calibration performance measured by the logarithm of mean square errors and achieve faster performance convergence in terms of BO iterations. We anticipate that the proposed calibration methods can be extended to enable fast calibration of more complex epidemiological models, such as the agent-based models.

流行病建模贝叶斯优化灰箱方法模型校准

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