用物理信息神经网络优化蚊子种群模型参数,提升预测精度。
Modelling Mosquito Population Dynamics using PINN-derived Empirical Parameters
- 将物理约束嵌入神经网络,从观测数据反推生物过程参数。
- PINN模型在预测蚊子种群动态上优于传统微分方程模型。
- 通过架构实验发现网络结构对模型性能有显著影响。
虫媒疾病每年仍威胁超30亿人健康。尽管存在局限性,基于常微分方程的机制化动态模型仍是表征生物过程的常用方法,其参数反映发育与存活率。近期种群建模结合机器学习,其中物理信息神经网络(PINNs)将物理、生物或化学规律嵌入神经网络,利用观测数据训练,支持正向模拟与反演建模。本文聚焦用PINNs改进机制模型中生物过程的参数化,实现反演参数估计。对比机制模型与PINN模型的实验表明,PINN整体表现更优。为进一步理解其性能,我们通过单因素变化实验验证了不同架构对框架效果的影响,保持其他条件不变以观察各组件作用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Vector-borne diseases continue to pose a significant health threat globally with more than 3 billion people at risk each year. Despite some limitations, mechanistic dynamic models are a popular approach to representing biological processes using ordinary differential equations where the parameters describe the different development and survival rates. Recent advances in population modelling have seen the combination of these mechanistic models with machine learning. One approach is physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) whereby the machine learning framework embeds physical, biological, or chemical laws into neural networks trained on observed or measured data. This enables forward simulations, predicting system behaviour from given parameters and inputs, and inverse modelling, improving parameterisation of existing parameters and estimating unknown or latent variables. In this paper, we focus on improving the parameterisation of biological processes in mechanistic models using PINNs to determine inverse parameters. In comparing mechanistic and PINN models, our experiments offer important insights into the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches but demonstrated that the PINN approach generally outperforms the dynamic model. For a deeper understanding of the performance of PINN models, a final validation was used to investigate how modifications to PINN architectures affect the performance of the framework. By varying only a single component at a time and keeping all other factors constant, we are able to observe the effect of each change.
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