arXiv:2412.07638cs.LG2024-12被引 2

用注意力机制增强贝兰生存估计器,提升生存分析预测精度

SurvBETA: Ensemble-Based Survival Models Using Beran Estimators and Several Attention Mechanisms

  • 以贝兰估计器为弱学习器,结合三次注意力机制构建集成模型
  • 在真实数据上优于传统生存模型,简化版优化问题更易求解
  • 适合需要高精度生存预测的医疗研究者使用

为扩展生存分析中的集成模型,提出一种新方法SurvBETA(基于贝兰估计器与三种注意力机制的生存集成模型)。该模型以贝兰估计器作为弱学习器,其本质是考虑实例间关系的核回归模型。通过三次注意力机制实现:一是用于贝兰估计器本身,二是确定各自助样本的原型,三是加权聚合弱模型输出的条件生存函数。模型提供两种形式:一种需解决复杂优化问题,另一种采用不精确胡伯污染模型表示注意力权重,使优化更简单。数值实验显示其在合成数据上的良好性质,并在真实数据上对比其他生存模型表现更优。代码已公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many ensemble-based models have been proposed to solve machine learning problems in the survival analysis framework, including random survival forests, the gradient boosting machine with weak survival models, ensembles of the Cox models. To extend the set of models, a new ensemble-based model called SurvBETA (the Survival Beran estimator Ensemble using Three Attention mechanisms) is proposed where the Beran estimator is used as a weak learner in the ensemble. The Beran estimator can be regarded as a kernel regression model taking into account the relationship between instances. Outputs of weak learners in the form of conditional survival functions are aggregated with attention weights taking into account the distance between the analyzed instance and prototypes of all bootstrap samples. The attention mechanism is used three times: for implementation of the Beran estimators, for determining specific prototypes of bootstrap samples and for aggregating the weak model predictions. The proposed model is presented in two forms: in a general form requiring to solve a complex optimization problem for its training; in a simplified form by considering a special representation of the attention weights by means of the imprecise Huber's contamination model which leads to solving a simple optimization problem. Numerical experiments illustrate properties of the model on synthetic data and compare the model with other survival models on real data. A code implementing the proposed model is publicly available.

生存分析集成模型注意力机制

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