arXiv:2412.08052cs.LGstat.ML2024-12被引 2

用反事实标注提升医疗决策评估的可靠性,即使标注不完美也能稳健工作。

CANDOR: Counterfactual ANnotated DOubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation

  • 基于双重稳健框架,将标注融入奖励模型而非重要性采样
  • 在真实电子病历数据上,误标注下仍优于无标注的基线方法
  • 特别适合医疗等高风险场景中需谨慎评估新策略的使用者

在医疗等高风险决策场景中,离策略评估(OPE)对评估新治疗策略至关重要。然而,现有方法受限于数据覆盖范围,难以评估新策略表现。近期工作通过引入专家标注的反事实样本试图扩展数据覆盖,但标注常不完美,反而导致估计性能下降。为此,本文提出一类基于双重稳健(DR)框架的OPE估计器,结合重要性采样(IS)与奖励模型(直接法,DM)。研究了三种融合反事实标注的方式,理论证明:仅将标注用于DM部分时,在弱假设下可获得最优统计性质。多组医疗任务实验(包括真实电子健康记录数据)表明,该策略在奖励模型误设和标注不准确时仍最稳健。本工作提升了不完美标注下的评估可靠性,推动了决策算法在医疗中的安全部署。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is critical for applying contextual bandit algorithms to high-stakes decision-making settings such as healthcare, where new treatment policies must be evaluated prior to deployment. Unfortunately, OPE techniques are inherently limited by the breadth of the available data, which may not be sufficient to evaluate the performance of a new policy. Recent work attempts to improve dataset coverage by adding expert-annotated counterfactual samples. However, such annotations are often imperfect and can lead to worse estimator performance than using no annotations at all. To better leverage imperfect annotations, we propose a family of OPE estimators grounded in the doubly robust (DR) framework, which combines importance sampling (IS) with a reward model (direct method, DM) for better statistical guarantees. We study three ways of incorporating counterfactual annotations. Under mild assumptions, we prove that using annotations within just the DM component yields the most desirable theoretical results. Experiments on multiple healthcare tasks, including real-world electronic health records (EHR) data, show that this strategy is most robust under misspecified reward models and inaccurate annotations. By addressing the challenges posed by imperfect annotations, this work broadens the applicability of OPE methods and facilitates safer deployment of decision-making policies in healthcare.

离策略评估医疗决策反事实标注双重稳健

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