用深度学习分析美国总统战前演讲，找预示战争的言辞特征
Words of War: Exploring the Presidential Rhetorical Arsenal with Deep Learning
- 构建神经网络模型分析总统演讲文本语义模式
- 识别出战前演讲中与战争爆发高度相关的语言特征
- 适合对政治话语分析、历史预测建模感兴趣的读者
在政治话语与地缘政治分析中，国家领导人的言辞具有深远意义，常成为重大历史事件的先兆。从激情号召到谨慎警告，美国总统在重大冲突前的演讲浓缩了决策层复杂的动态。本研究利用深度学习技术，解码美国总统言论中可能预示其参与重大战争的微妙语义模式。我们不仅追求高精度分类，更进一步识别两类演讲间的判别性特征（即可解释的学习）。通过机器学习与历史研究的跨学科融合，探索神经网络在识别总统战前准备性言辞方面的预测能力。正如普鲁士将军、军事理论家克劳塞维茨所言：战争不仅是政策的行动，更是以其他手段延续的政治对话（Clausewitz, 1832）。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In political discourse and geopolitical analysis, national leaders words hold profound significance, often serving as harbingers of pivotal historical moments. From impassioned rallying cries to calls for caution, presidential speeches preceding major conflicts encapsulate the multifaceted dynamics of decision-making at the apex of governance. This project aims to use deep learning techniques to decode the subtle nuances and underlying patterns of US presidential rhetoric that may signal US involvement in major wars. While accurate classification is desirable, we seek to take a step further and identify discriminative features between the two classes (i.e. interpretable learning). Through an interdisciplinary fusion of machine learning and historical inquiry, we aspire to unearth insights into the predictive capacity of neural networks in discerning the preparatory rhetoric of US presidents preceding war. Indeed, as the venerable Prussian General and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz admonishes, War is not merely an act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse carried on with other means (Clausewitz, 1832).
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