用组合优化+神经网络,高效筛选美国核电站候选地。
Multi-objective Combinatorial Methodology for Nuclear Reactor Site Assessment: A Case Study for the United States
- 构建多目标组合搜索模型,评估超3万选址
- 发现俄亥俄等4个煤电厂址、佛罗里达等2个棕地最适配
- 融合机器学习与优化,适合能源规划者参考
随着清洁能需求增长以实现可持续和净零目标,核能成为可靠选项。但核电站高资本成本仍是挑战,利用已有基础设施的燃煤电厂址(CPP)改造是降低成本的重要途径。此外,曾被工业活动影响的棕地(Brownfield sites)也是有吸引力的替代方案。本研究提出一种新型多目标组合优化方法,通过组合搜索评估美国超过3万处潜在核电站选址。该方法克服了传统赋权法导致的排名偏差,基于详细属性分析为每个站点生成基于性能的评分。建立包含站点位置、属性、评分及各属性贡献度的综合数据库,并据此训练神经网络模型,实现对全美任意地点核电选址适宜性的快速预测。结果显示,燃煤电厂址在核能开发中具有高度竞争力,部分棕地站点亦可与之媲美。特别地,俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州和新罕布什尔州的4个煤电厂址,以及佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州的2个棕地位列最具潜力的候选地。研究凸显了机器学习与优化技术融合在变革核电选址中的潜力,为低成本、可持续能源未来铺平道路。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As clean energy demand grows to meet sustainability and net-zero goals, nuclear energy emerges as a reliable option. However, high capital costs remain a challenge for nuclear power plants (NPP), where repurposing coal power plant sites (CPP) with existing infrastructure is one way to reduce these costs. Additionally, Brownfield sites-previously developed or underutilized lands often impacted by industrial activity-present another compelling alternative. This study introduces a novel multi-objective optimization methodology, leveraging combinatorial search to evaluate over 30,000 potential NPP sites in the United States. Our approach addresses gaps in the current practice of assigning pre-determined weights to each site attribute that could lead to bias in the ranking. Each site is assigned a performance-based score, derived from a detailed combinatorial analysis of its site attributes. The methodology generates a comprehensive database comprising site locations (inputs), attributes (outputs), site score (outputs), and the contribution of each attribute to the site score. We then use this database to train a neural network model, enabling rapid predictions of nuclear siting suitability across any location in the United States. Our findings highlight that CPP sites are highly competitive for nuclear development, but some Brownfield sites are able to compete with them. Notably, four CPP sites in Ohio, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, and two Brownfield sites in Florida and California rank among the most promising locations. These results underscore the potential of integrating machine learning and optimization techniques to transform nuclear siting, paving the way for a cost-effective and sustainable energy future.
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