用机器学习融合地面观测与气象数据,实现高精度区域短时天气预测。
Regional Weather Variable Predictions by Machine Learning with Near-Surface Observational and Atmospheric Numerical Data
- 构建双编码器变压器模型,融合5分钟地面观测与小时级气象数值数据。
- 在肯塔基州站点测试中,模型预测误差显著低于现有方法。
- 可推广至无观测站区域,适合灾害预警与农业等场景使用。
准确及时的区域天气预测对依赖天气决策的行业至关重要。传统基于大气方程的方法常因时间分辨率粗和误差大而受限。本文提出一种新型机器学习模型MiMa(Micro-Macro),融合肯塔基州Mesonet站点每5分钟采集的近地面观测数据(称为Micro数据)和每小时的气象数值输出(称为Macro数据),用于高分辨率天气预报。MiMa采用编码器-解码器结构,两个编码器分别处理两类多变量数据,解码器预测短期天气变量。每个MiMa实例(称作modelet)负责预测单个站点特定气象参数值。通过Re-MiMa模式(区域版MiMa)扩展,利用区域内少数代表性站点的多变量数据(含海拔信息)训练,实现对无观测点区域的精准预测。实验表明,MiMa显著优于现有模型,Re-MiMa可在整个区域提供高精度短时预报,显著提升天气预测的准确性与适用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate and timely regional weather prediction is vital for sectors dependent on weather-related decisions. Traditional prediction methods, based on atmospheric equations, often struggle with coarse temporal resolutions and inaccuracies. This paper presents a novel machine learning (ML) model, called MiMa (short for Micro-Macro), that integrates both near-surface observational data from Kentucky Mesonet stations (collected every five minutes, known as Micro data) and hourly atmospheric numerical outputs (termed as Macro data) for fine-resolution weather forecasting. The MiMa model employs an encoder-decoder transformer structure, with two encoders for processing multivariate data from both datasets and a decoder for forecasting weather variables over short time horizons. Each instance of the MiMa model, called a modelet, predicts the values of a specific weather parameter at an individual Mesonet station. The approach is extended with Re-MiMa modelets, which are designed to predict weather variables at ungauged locations by training on multivariate data from a few representative stations in a region, tagged with their elevations. Re-MiMa (short for Regional-MiMa) can provide highly accurate predictions across an entire region, even in areas without observational stations. Experimental results show that MiMa significantly outperforms current models, with Re-MiMa offering precise short-term forecasts for ungauged locations, marking a significant advancement in weather forecasting accuracy and applicability.
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