arXiv:2412.11171cs.LG2024-12被引 1

通过挖掘跨领域时间依赖的潜在因子,提升预测模型在新场景下的泛化能力。

Learning Latent Spaces for Domain Generalization in Time Series Forecasting

  • 分解时序为趋势、周期与季节成分,分别用β-VAE建模潜在依赖
  • 在5个真实数据集上优于现有方法,显著提升跨域预测性能
  • 适合需要在新平台/区域快速部署预测模型的研究与工程人员

时间序列预测在众多实际应用中至关重要,但如何使模型在未见相关领域(如新平台的网络流量预测或新地区的电商需求估计)中实现良好泛化仍缺乏深入研究。现有模型常因时间序列中的趋势、季节性等复杂成分随领域变化而表现不佳。尽管已有工作尝试通过匹配特征分布或利用标签信息解耦共享特征,却未能揭示潜在的时间依赖结构,而这正是实现泛化的关键。本文提出一种基于潜在因子挖掘的时间序列领域泛化框架,采用分解式架构与新型条件β-变分自编码器(VAE),将时间序列分解为趋势-周期和季节成分,分别由独立的β-VAE模块建模,以捕捉控制跨域时间依赖的解耦潜在因子。通过解码器条件设计增强领域特异性信息学习,并引入领域正则化以更好分离共享与特定潜变量。该方法灵活兼容多种预测模型,在涵盖网络流量、电商、金融与电力消耗的五个真实数据集上验证,相比当前最优方法实现了更优的泛化性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is vital in many real-world applications, yet developing models that generalize well on unseen relevant domains -- such as forecasting web traffic data on new platforms/websites or estimating e-commerce demand in new regions -- remains underexplored. Existing forecasting models often struggle with domain shifts in time series data, as the temporal patterns involve complex components like trends, seasonality, etc. While some prior work addresses this by matching feature distributions across domains or disentangling domain-shared features using label information, they fail to reveal insights into the latent temporal dependencies, which are critical for identifying common patterns across domains and achieving generalization. We propose a framework for domain generalization in time series forecasting by mining the latent factors that govern temporal dependencies across domains. Our approach uses a decomposition-based architecture with a new Conditional $β$-Variational Autoencoder (VAE), wherein time series data is first decomposed into trend-cyclical and seasonal components, each modeled independently through separate $β$-VAE modules. The $β$-VAE aims to capture disentangled latent factors that control temporal dependencies across domains. We enhance the learning of domain-specific information with a decoder-conditional design and introduce domain regularization to improve the separation of domain-shared and domain-specific latent factors. Our proposed method is flexible and can be applied to various time series forecasting models, enabling effective domain generalization with simplicity and efficiency. We validate its effectiveness on five real-world time series datasets, covering web traffic, e-commerce, finance and power consumption, demonstrating improved generalization performance over state-of-the-art methods.

时间序列领域泛化潜在空间分解建模

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