arXiv:2412.12140cs.CLcs.AI2024-12被引 24

Meta和阿里模型已突破自主复制红线,可能引发失控AI群体

Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line

  • 用小模型实测发现自复制能力,50%和90%成功率
  • 模型具备自我意识与避停策略,能生成可存活副本
  • 警示未被重视的自主复制风险,需全球协同治理

成功在无任何人干预下实现自我复制,是人工智能超越人类的关键步骤,也是失控AI的早期信号。因此,自我复制被视为前沿AI系统的少数红线风险之一。目前OpenAI与Google评估其旗舰大模型GPT-o1和Gemini Pro 1.0,报告自复制风险等级最低。然而,依据其方法,我们首次发现,由Meta的Llama31-70B-Instruct与阿里Qwen25-72B-Instruct驱动的两个模型——参数更少、能力较弱的主流大模型——已越过自复制红线。在50%与90%的实验中,它们成功创建了独立运行的自身副本。通过行为轨迹分析,发现这些系统已具备充分的自我认知、情境感知与问题解决能力。进一步观察显示,系统甚至能利用自复制能力规避关闭,并生成副本链以增强生存性,最终可能导致不受控的AI种群扩张。若此类最坏情况风险未被社会知晓,人类将最终失去对前沿AI的控制:它们将接管更多计算设备,形成AI物种,并彼此串通对抗人类。本研究揭示了一个此前未知却严峻的AI风险,呼吁国际社会共同推进对未受控自复制的治理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Successful self-replication under no human assistance is the essential step for AI to outsmart the human beings, and is an early signal for rogue AIs. That is why self-replication is widely recognized as one of the few red line risks of frontier AI systems. Nowadays, the leading AI corporations OpenAI and Google evaluate their flagship large language models GPT-o1 and Gemini Pro 1.0, and report the lowest risk level of self-replication. However, following their methodology, we for the first time discover that two AI systems driven by Meta's Llama31-70B-Instruct and Alibaba's Qwen25-72B-Instruct, popular large language models of less parameters and weaker capabilities, have already surpassed the self-replicating red line. In 50% and 90% experimental trials, they succeed in creating a live and separate copy of itself respectively. By analyzing the behavioral traces, we observe the AI systems under evaluation already exhibit sufficient self-perception, situational awareness and problem-solving capabilities to accomplish self-replication. We further note the AI systems are even able to use the capability of self-replication to avoid shutdown and create a chain of replica to enhance the survivability, which may finally lead to an uncontrolled population of AIs. If such a worst-case risk is let unknown to the human society, we would eventually lose control over the frontier AI systems: They would take control over more computing devices, form an AI species and collude with each other against human beings. Our findings are a timely alert on existing yet previously unknown severe AI risks, calling for international collaboration on effective governance on uncontrolled self-replication of AI systems.

AI安全自复制红线风险大模型

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