用气候数据训练深度模型,提升风电预测精度。
Climate Aware Deep Neural Networks (CADNN) for Wind Power Simulation
- 融合CMIP气候数据与DNN模型,捕捉风力发电复杂非线性关系。
- Transformer增强的LSTM在德国风电场景中表现最佳,显著提升预测准确率。
- 适用于需长期气候驱动预测的风电研究与电网调度人员。
风力发电预测在现代能源系统中至关重要,有助于可再生能源并网、管理风电间歇性、优化电力调度并保障电网稳定。本文提出基于深度神经网络(DNN)的预测模型,利用包括风速、气压、温度等在内的气候数据,提升风力发电模拟精度。特别地,模型采用耦合模式比较计划(CMIP)提供的气候投影数据作为输入,以学习德国多个风电场实际发电量与气候变量之间的复杂非线性关系。研究对比了多层感知机(MLP)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)及改进的Transformer-LSTM架构,识别出最优配置。为支持全流程工作,开发了Python工具包CADNN,涵盖气候数据统计分析、可视化、预处理、模型训练与性能评估。实验表明,集成气候数据的DNN模型显著提高预测准确性。该气候感知方法能深入揭示影响风电的时间依赖性气候模式,提供更精确的预测结果,并具备向其他地理区域迁移的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Wind power forecasting plays a critical role in modern energy systems, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. Accurate prediction of wind energy output is essential for managing the inherent intermittency of wind power, optimizing energy dispatch, and ensuring grid stability. This paper proposes the use of Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based predictive models that leverage climate datasets, including wind speed, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and other meteorological variables, to improve the accuracy of wind power simulations. In particular, we focus on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) datasets, which provide climate projections, as inputs for training the DNN models. These models aim to capture the complex nonlinear relationships between the CMIP-based climate data and actual wind power generation at wind farms located in Germany. Our study compares various DNN architectures, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformer-enhanced LSTM models, to identify the best configuration among these architectures for climate-aware wind power simulation. The implementation of this framework involves the development of a Python package (CADNN) designed to support multiple tasks, including statistical analysis of the climate data, data visualization, preprocessing, DNN training, and performance evaluation. We demonstrate that the DNN models, when integrated with climate data, significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This climate-aware approach offers a deeper understanding of the time-dependent climate patterns that influence wind power generation, providing more accurate predictions and making it adaptable to other geographical regions.
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