用机器学习预测个体时间感知变化方向，准确率超基准10个百分点。

Time perception research has advanced significantly over the years. However, some areas remain largely unexplored. This study addresses two such under-explored areas in timing research: (1) A quantitative analysis of time perception at an individual level, and (2) Time perception in an ecological setting. In this context, we trained a machine learning model to predict the direction of change in an individual's time production. The model's training data was collected using an ecologically valid setup. We moved closer to an ecological setting by conducting an online experiment with 995 participants performing a time production task that used naturalistic videos (no audio) as stimuli. The model achieved an accuracy of 61%. This was 10 percentage points higher than the baseline models derived from cognitive theories of timing. The model performed equally well on new data from a second experiment, providing evidence of its generalization capabilities. The model's output analysis revealed that it also contained information about the magnitude of change in time production. The predictions were further analysed at both population and individual level. It was found that a participant's previous timing performance played a significant role in determining the direction of change in time production. By integrating attentional-gate theories from timing research with feature importance techniques from machine learning, we explained model predictions using cognitive theories of timing. The model and findings from this study have potential applications in systems involving human-computer interactions where understanding and predicting changes in user's time perception can enable better user experience and task performance.