arXiv:2412.13041cs.CLcs.LG2024-12AAAI被引 6

用语言模型分析车辆事件数据,提前预测故障时间和类型。

Harnessing Event Sensory Data for Error Pattern Prediction in Vehicles: A Language Model Approach

  • 将车辆事件流类比为语言序列,用因果Transformer建模时序关系。
  • 仅用一半错误代码即可达80%准确率预测故障类型,时间预测误差平均58.4小时。
  • 适合车联网、智能运维和汽车安全领域的工程师与研究人员。

本文将自然语言处理的思想应用于车辆多变量事件流,以预测特定车辆未来何时及何种故障模式最可能发生。事件数据包含离散的错误代码与连续的时间、里程等信息。我们提出两个因果Transformer模型:基于新自监督学习策略训练的CarFormer,以及可自回归生成后续事件的EPredictor。该方法有效应对事件类型高基数、出现频率不均及标注数据稀缺等挑战。实验表明,平均使用160条错误代码序列时,仅需其中一半数据即可实现80%的F1分数用于预测故障类型,时间预测平均绝对误差为58.4 ± 13.2小时,支持可信的预测性维护并提升车辆安全性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we draw an analogy between processing natural languages and processing multivariate event streams from vehicles in order to predict $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern is most likely to occur in the future for a given car. Our approach leverages the temporal dynamics and contextual relationships of our event data from a fleet of cars. Event data is composed of discrete values of error codes as well as continuous values such as time and mileage. Modelled by two causal Transformers, we can anticipate vehicle failures and malfunctions before they happen. Thus, we introduce $\textit{CarFormer}$, a Transformer model trained via a new self-supervised learning strategy, and $\textit{EPredictor}$, an autoregressive Transformer decoder model capable of predicting $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern will most likely occur after some error code apparition. Despite the challenges of high cardinality of event types, their unbalanced frequency of appearance and limited labelled data, our experimental results demonstrate the excellent predictive ability of our novel model. Specifically, with sequences of $160$ error codes on average, our model is able with only half of the error codes to achieve $80\%$ F1 score for predicting $\textit{what}$ error pattern will occur and achieves an average absolute error of $58.4 \pm 13.2$h $\textit{when}$ forecasting the time of occurrence, thus enabling confident predictive maintenance and enhancing vehicle safety.

故障预测Transformer车联网预测维护

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