用可预测性方法解决特征依赖需求预测的模型错误问题,提升决策鲁棒性。
A Conformal Approach to Feature-based Newsvendor under Model Misspecification
- 基于校准机制对特征化报童模型进行无分布修正,不依赖原始模型正确性。
- 在模拟与真实数据上分别降低40%和25%的报童损失,显著优于基准方法。
- 适合需高可靠性决策的场景,如供应链库存、资源调度等实际应用。
在诸多数据驱动决策问题中,性能保障高度依赖模型假设的正确性,而这类假设在现实中常失效。本文针对受特征(如人口统计、季节性)影响的需求预测问题,提出一种无需模型假设、分布无关的框架,受同型预测(conformal prediction)启发。该框架分为两阶段:训练阶段可使用任意预测方法,校准阶段对模型偏差进行同型化处理。为提升预测性能,研究了数据质量与数量间的权衡关系——更严格的筛选提升质量但减少样本量。重要的是,本文提供了同型化临界分位数的统计保证,且其置信区间宽度随数据质量与数量提升而缩小。通过模拟数据及华盛顿特区共享单车项目的真实数据验证,所提方法在两类数据上分别将报童损失降低40%和25%,持续优于基准算法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In many data-driven decision-making problems, performance guarantees often depend heavily on the correctness of model assumptions, which may frequently fail in practice. We address this issue in the context of a feature-based newsvendor problem, where demand is influenced by observed features such as demographics and seasonality. To mitigate the impact of model misspecification, we propose a model-free and distribution-free framework inspired by conformal prediction. Our approach consists of two phases: a training phase, which can utilize any type of prediction method, and a calibration phase that conformalizes the model bias. To enhance predictive performance, we explore the balance between data quality and quantity, recognizing the inherent trade-off: more selective training data improves quality but reduces quantity. Importantly, we provide statistical guarantees for the conformalized critical quantile, independent of the correctness of the underlying model. Moreover, we quantify the confidence interval of the critical quantile, with its width decreasing as data quality and quantity improve. We validate our framework using both simulated data and a real-world dataset from the Capital Bikeshare program in Washington, D.C. Across these experiments, our proposed method consistently outperforms benchmark algorithms, reducing newsvendor loss by up to 40% on the simulated data and 25% on the real-world dataset.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。