融合小波包与季节调整,用双向LSTM预测沙特风电场风速,精度显著提升。
Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Data Decomposition and Deep Learning Models: A Case Study of a Wind Farm in Saudi Arabia
- 先用小波包分解再季节调整,降低数据复杂性。
- 在沙特5年小时级数据上,平均误差仅0.1765,拟合度达0.986。
- 适合风电调度、电网稳定等需要高精度风速预测的场景。
随着工业与技术发展及电力需求增长,风能逐渐成为增长最快且最环保的新能源。然而,风速波动导致风电输出具有不确定性,风速预测(WSF)对电网调度、稳定性和可控性至关重要。本研究针对沙特阿尔-朱夫地区杜马特·阿尔-贾丹风电场,提出一种基于混合分解方法与双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)的静止数据风速预测框架。该混合方法结合小波包分解(WPD)与季节调整法(SAM),通过消除WPD生成子序列中的季节成分,降低预测复杂度。随后使用BiLSTM对去季节化后的各子序列进行预测。基于该地区5年小时级风速观测数据,对比27种其他模型的结果表明,所提模型在单步与多步预测中均表现最优,整体平均绝对误差为0.176549,均方根误差为0.247069,决定系数(R²)达0.985987。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With industrial and technological development and the increasing demand for electric power, wind energy has gradually become the fastest-growing and most environmentally friendly new energy source. Nevertheless, wind power generation is always accompanied by uncertainty due to the wind speed's volatility. Wind speed forecasting (WSF) is essential for power grids' dispatch, stability, and controllability, and its accuracy is crucial to effectively using wind resources. Therefore, this study proposes a novel WSF framework for stationary data based on a hybrid decomposition method and the Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM) to achieve high forecasting accuracy for the Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. The hybrid decomposition method combines the Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD) and the Seasonal Adjustment Method (SAM). The SAM method eliminates the seasonal component of the decomposed subseries generated by WPD to reduce forecasting complexity. The BiLSTM is applied to forecast all the deseasonalized decomposed subseries. Five years of hourly wind speed observations acquired from a location in the Al-Jouf region were used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model. The comparative experimental results, including 27 other models, demonstrated the proposed model's superiority in single and multiple WSF with an overall average mean absolute error of 0.176549, root mean square error of 0.247069, and R-squared error of 0.985987.
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