用自注意力机制统一校正多时次温风速预报,更快更准。
Self-attentive Transformer for Fast and Accurate Postprocessing of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts
- 基于多头自注意力,同时处理20个预报时次的温风速数据
- 温度、10米/100米风速预报的CRPS分别降低16.5%、10%、9%
- 速度快于传统方法六倍,适合风电等实时预报场景
现有后处理方法通常需为每个预报时次单独建模,且忽略集合成员间的关联。本文提出一种新型快速准确的Transformer模型,对每个集合成员独立校正,同时通过多头自注意力实现变量、空间维度和预报时次间的跨域信息交互。在包含欧洲中期天气预报中心集成预报系统集合预测及对应观测的EUPPBench数据集上,模型同时校正两米温度、十米与一百米风速,覆盖20个预报时次,引入最多十五个气象预测因子。该工作首次在该基准数据集上完成十米与一百米风速的后处理校正。实验显示,模型在CRPS指标上分别提升16.5%(两米温度)、10%(十米风速)、9%(一百米风速),显著优于传统的成员逐个校正方法。此外,计算速度最高达传统方法六倍,满足可再生能源预报等下游应用对快速预报的需求。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we tackle these shortcomings with an innovative, fast and accurate Transformer which postprocesses each ensemble member individually while allowing information exchange across variables, spatial dimensions and lead times by means of multi-headed self-attention. Weather forecasts are postprocessed over 20 lead times simultaneously while including up to fifteen meteorological predictors. We use the EUPPBench dataset for training which contains ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts' integrated forecasting system alongside corresponding observations. The work presented here is the first to postprocess the ten and one hundred-meter wind speed forecasts within this benchmark dataset, while also correcting two-meter temperature. Our approach significantly improves the original forecasts, as measured by the CRPS, with 16.5\% for two-meter temperature, 10\% for ten-meter wind speed and 9\% for one hundred-meter wind speed, outperforming a classical member-by-member approach employed as a competitive benchmark. Furthermore, being up to six times faster, it fulfills the demand for rapid operational weather forecasts in various downstream applications, including renewable energy forecasting.
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