arXiv:2412.14039q-bio.QMcs.LG2024-12被引 4

战争与疫情叠加时,用强化学习优化医疗资源分配,减少总体死亡率。

Spatio-Temporal SIR Model of Pandemic Spread During Warfare with Optimal Dual-use Healthcare System Administration using Deep Reinforcement Learning

  • 融合流行病学与战争模型,构建时空耦合的疫情-战争动态系统
  • 强化学习训练出策略:优先救治即时死亡人数多的一方,无视长期目标
  • 适用于冲突地区应急医疗决策,为双用途医疗系统提供智能管理方案

大规模危机如战争与疫情的并发对社会构成严峻挑战。理解战时疫情传播机制对制定冲突区防控策略至关重要。本文提出一种新型数学模型,将流行病学的SIR模型与战争动力学的兰彻斯特模型相结合,研究战争与疫情对人口死亡率的双重影响。同时考虑军民共用的医疗系统,其管理政策可影响整体死亡率。通过基于代理的仿真生成虚拟数据,训练深度强化学习模型以优化医疗资源配置,并对其性能进行深入分析。结果表明,战时疫情会引发混沌动态,医疗系统应根据即时死亡人数决定优先救治对象——要么优先治疗伤员,要么优先救治感染者,而忽略长期目标。研究强调在流行病建模中纳入冲突因素的重要性,有助于提升冲突地区应对能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential for developing effective containment strategies in complex conflict zones. While research has explored epidemic models in various settings, the impact of warfare on epidemic dynamics remains underexplored. In this study, we proposed a novel mathematical model that integrates the epidemiological SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with the war dynamics Lanchester model to explore the dual influence of war and pandemic on a population's mortality. Moreover, we consider a dual-use military and civil healthcare system that aims to reduce the overall mortality rate which can use different administration policies. Using an agent-based simulation to generate in silico data, we trained a deep reinforcement learning model for healthcare administration policy and conducted an intensive investigation on its performance. Our results show that a pandemic during war conduces chaotic dynamics where the healthcare system should either prioritize war-injured soldiers or pandemic-infected civilians based on the immediate amount of mortality from each option, ignoring long-term objectives. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating conflict-related factors into epidemic modeling to enhance preparedness and response strategies in conflict-affected areas.

疫情建模强化学习战争医疗双用途系统

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