构建干旱预测新数据集DroughtSet并提出时空模型,提升对短期至季节性干旱的预测能力。
DroughtSet: Understanding Drought Through Spatial-Temporal Learning
- 融合多源遥感与再分析数据构建时空干旱数据集
- 模型同时预测三种干旱类型,准确率优于基线方法
- 提供可解释性分析,助力理解物理与生物因素影响
干旱是破坏性强、代价高昂的自然灾害,严重威胁水资源和农业产量。在气候变化背景下,精准预测干旱对缓解风险至关重要。然而,调控干旱的物理与生物驱动因素之间复杂的相互作用,限制了其在亚季节至季节(S2S)时间尺度上的可预测性。尽管深度学习在气候预测中展现出潜力,但其在干旱预测中的应用仍较少。本文提出新数据集DroughtSet,整合来自多个遥感和再分析数据集的预测特征及三种干旱指数,覆盖美国本土(CONUS)。该数据集为机器学习社区提供了基准工具,用于评估干旱预测模型与时间序列预测方法。同时,提出空间-时间模型SPDrought,通过学习物理与生物特征的时空模式,实现三种干旱类型的同步预测。采用多种策略量化各因素对预测的重要性。结果揭示了干旱可预测性与生物/物理条件敏感性的新见解,旨在推动气候研究,并为人工智能领域提供气候科学中深度学习应用的新基准。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Drought is one of the most destructive and expensive natural disasters, severely impacting natural resources and risks by depleting water resources and diminishing agricultural yields. Under climate change, accurately predicting drought is critical for mitigating drought-induced risks. However, the intricate interplay among the physical and biological drivers that regulate droughts limits the predictability and understanding of drought, particularly at a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale. While deep learning has been demonstrated with potential in addressing climate forecasting challenges, its application to drought prediction has received relatively less attention. In this work, we propose a new dataset, DroughtSet, which integrates relevant predictive features and three drought indices from multiple remote sensing and reanalysis datasets across the contiguous United States (CONUS). DroughtSet specifically provides the machine learning community with a new real-world dataset to benchmark drought prediction models and more generally, time-series forecasting methods. Furthermore, we propose a spatial-temporal model SPDrought to predict and interpret S2S droughts. Our model learns from the spatial and temporal information of physical and biological features to predict three types of droughts simultaneously. Multiple strategies are employed to quantify the importance of physical and biological features for drought prediction. Our results provide insights for researchers to better understand the predictability and sensitivity of drought to biological and physical conditions. We aim to contribute to the climate field by proposing a new tool to predict and understand the occurrence of droughts and provide the AI community with a new benchmark to study deep learning applications in climate science.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。