分析13个县级特征,发现经济与人口因素显著影响阿片类药物死亡率
Investigating the importance of county-level characteristics in opioid-related mortality across the United States
- 基于机器学习分析2010-2022年全美县层级数据,识别关键影响因素
- 经济不稳、人口流动等特征与阿片类药物死亡率显著正相关
- 研究结果可为公共卫生政策提供精准干预依据
阿片类药物危机仍是美国重大公共健康挑战。尽管2011至2021年间处方阿片类药物开具量下降近45%,但阿片类药物过量死亡人数却翻了三倍以上。这一趋势表明危机已转向以非法阿片类药物为主导。虽然供应端因素受到关注,但推动滥用的结构性条件仍不清晰。新冠疫情通过加剧社会隔离和创纪录的失业率,进一步恶化了危机。为此,本研究分析了13个与人口特征、经济稳定性和基础设施相关的县级指标与阿片类药物死亡率的关系。利用2010至2022年连续多年的全国县级数据集,结合探索性数据分析与机器学习特征重要性评估,发现若干区域特征与阿片类药物死亡率高度相关:当这些因素水平较高时,会加剧危机;反之则可能缓解。研究揭示了结构性因素在疫情背景下对阿片类药物危机的深层影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts which reduced opioid prescribing rates by nearly 45\% between 2011 and 2021, opioid-related overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although much attention has been given to supply-side factors fueling this transition, the underlying structural conditions that perpetuate and exacerbate opioid misuse remain less understood. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic intensified the opioid crisis through widespread social isolation and record-high unemployment; consequently, understanding the underlying drivers of this epidemic has become even more crucial in recent years. To address this need, our study examines the correlation between opioid-related mortality and thirteen county-level characteristics related to population traits, economic stability, and infrastructure. Leveraging a nationwide county-level dataset spanning consecutive years from 2010 to 2022, this study integrates empirical insights from exploratory data analysis with feature importance metrics derived from machine learning models. Our findings highlight critical regional characteristics strongly correlated with opioid-related mortality, emphasizing their potential roles in worsening the epidemic when their levels are high and mitigating it when their levels are low.
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