arXiv:2412.15294cs.LGcs.AI2024-12KDD被引 24

统一预测个人轨迹与人群流动,提升复杂场景下预测精度。

A Universal Model for Human Mobility Prediction

  • 用多视图令牌化将轨迹与流量数据转为时空标记,统一建模。
  • 在噪声和数据稀缺场景中,MAPE降低超14%,准确率提升25%以上。
  • 适合城市规划、交通调度等需要融合个体与群体行为的场景。

预测人类移动对城市规划、交通控制和应急响应至关重要。移动行为可分为个体与集体两类,分别由个体轨迹和人群流量数据记录。个体轨迹与人群流量存在紧密耦合关系:人群流量源于个体轨迹的自下而上聚合,而人群流量的约束又塑造了个体轨迹。现有预测方法因个体轨迹与人群流量之间的模态差异,仅适用于单一任务。本文旨在统一移动预测,突破任务专用模型的局限。提出通用人类移动预测模型UniMob,可同时应用于个体轨迹与人群流量预测。UniMob采用多视图移动令牌化,将轨迹与流量数据转化为时空标记,通过扩散变换器架构实现统一序列建模。为弥合两类数据特征差异,设计新颖的双向个体-集体对齐机制,使模型能学习共有的时空模式,实现轨迹与流量预测的相互增强。在真实世界数据集上的大量实验验证,本模型在轨迹与流量预测上均优于当前最优基线。尤其在噪声大、数据稀疏场景下,模型在MAPE指标上提升超14%,在Accuracy@5指标上提升超25%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting human mobility is crucial for urban planning, traffic control, and emergency response. Mobility behaviors can be categorized into individual and collective, and these behaviors are recorded by diverse mobility data, such as individual trajectory and crowd flow. As different modalities of mobility data, individual trajectory and crowd flow have a close coupling relationship. Crowd flows originate from the bottom-up aggregation of individual trajectories, while the constraints imposed by crowd flows shape these individual trajectories. Existing mobility prediction methods are limited to single tasks due to modal gaps between individual trajectory and crowd flow. In this work, we aim to unify mobility prediction to break through the limitations of task-specific models. We propose a universal human mobility prediction model (named UniMob), which can be applied to both individual trajectory and crowd flow. UniMob leverages a multi-view mobility tokenizer that transforms both trajectory and flow data into spatiotemporal tokens, facilitating unified sequential modeling through a diffusion transformer architecture. To bridge the gap between the different characteristics of these two data modalities, we implement a novel bidirectional individual and collective alignment mechanism. This mechanism enables learning common spatiotemporal patterns from different mobility data, facilitating mutual enhancement of both trajectory and flow predictions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate the superiority of our model over state-of-the-art baselines in trajectory and flow prediction. Especially in noisy and scarce data scenarios, our model achieves the highest performance improvement of more than 14% and 25% in MAPE and Accuracy@5.

移动预测扩散模型多模态建模城市计算

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