arXiv:2412.15353cs.LGcs.AI2024-12被引 1

提出可解释的地理事件预测模型,用统计方法提取空间模式。

GeoPro-Net: Learning Interpretable Spatiotemporal Prediction Models through Statistically-Guided Geo-Prototyping

  • 用统计测试提取输入中的地理概念,构建可解释特征
  • 在四个真实数据集上表现优于主流模型,且解释性更强
  • 适合城市安全、公共管理等需透明决策的场景

预测犯罪、事故等时空事件对公共安全和城市管理至关重要。除准确性外,模型可解释性也是关键需求,但多源时空特征的复杂性、非专家难以理解的时空模式以及数据的空间异质性,使解释机制面临挑战。现有深度学习模型无法内在解释从多源时空特征中学习的预测过程。为此,我们提出GeoPro-Net,一种内在可解释的时空事件预测模型。该模型引入新型地理概念卷积操作,通过统计检验从输入中提取预测模式作为地理概念,并通过可解释通道融合与基于地理的池化压缩编码后的输入。此外,模型自主学习不同概念原型,并将其映射至真实案例以实现解释。在四个真实数据集上的全面实验与案例研究显示,GeoPro-Net在保持与先进基线相当预测性能的同时,显著提升了可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The problem of forecasting spatiotemporal events such as crimes and accidents is crucial to public safety and city management. Besides accuracy, interpretability is also a key requirement for spatiotemporal forecasting models to justify the decisions. Interpretation of the spatiotemporal forecasting mechanism is, however, challenging due to the complexity of multi-source spatiotemporal features, the non-intuitive nature of spatiotemporal patterns for non-expert users, and the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the data. Currently, no existing deep learning model intrinsically interprets the complex predictive process learned from multi-source spatiotemporal features. To bridge the gap, we propose GeoPro-Net, an intrinsically interpretable spatiotemporal model for spatiotemporal event forecasting problems. GeoPro-Net introduces a novel Geo-concept convolution operation, which employs statistical tests to extract predictive patterns in the input as Geo-concepts, and condenses the Geo-concept-encoded input through interpretable channel fusion and geographic-based pooling. In addition, GeoPro-Net learns different sets of prototypes of concepts inherently, and projects them to real-world cases for interpretation. Comprehensive experiments and case studies on four real-world datasets demonstrate that GeoPro-Net provides better interpretability while still achieving competitive prediction performance compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

时空预测可解释性地理建模

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