arXiv:2412.16214cs.LG2024-12AAAI被引 9

提出长效公平交通预测框架,解决传感器分布不均导致的预测偏差问题。

FairTP: A Prolonged Fairness Framework for Traffic Prediction

  • 定义区域静态公平与传感器动态公平,支持长期公平性保障
  • 在真实数据集上实现公平性显著提升,准确率下降可控
  • 适合关注交通决策公平性的智慧城市研究者与政策制定者

交通预测在智能交通系统中至关重要。现有方法多关注整体精度提升,忽视了模型是否引发交通管理决策偏倚的问题。现实中,城市间交通传感器部署不均导致数据不平衡,使预测模型在部分区域表现差,进而造成不公平决策,损害居民权益。此外,当前公平感知机器学习模型仅保证特定时间点的公平性,无法维持长期公平。随着交通状况变化,静态公平方法失效。为此,本文提出 FairTP 框架,用于长效公平交通预测。引入两种针对动态交通场景的新公平性定义:区域静态公平与传感器动态公平。交通预测中的公平性是动态变化的,每个传感器或城区会交替处于“牺牲”(低精度)或“受益”(高精度)状态。长效公平指在给定时间段内,传感器总体状态保持相似。FairTP 通过状态识别模块判断传感器状态,并采用状态引导的平衡采样策略,缓解因传感器分布不均造成的性能差异。在两个真实数据集上的大量实验表明,FairTP 显著提升预测公平性,同时最小化准确率损失。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems. Existing approaches primarily focus on improving overall accuracy, often neglecting a critical issue: whether predictive models lead to biased decisions by transportation authorities. In practice, the uneven deployment of traffic sensors across urban areas results in imbalanced data, causing prediction models to perform poorly in certain regions and leading to unfair decision-making. This imbalance ultimately harms the equity and quality of life for residents. Moreover, current fairness-aware machine learning models only ensure fairness at specific time points, failing to maintain fairness over extended periods. As traffic conditions change, such static fairness approaches become ineffective. To address this gap, we propose FairTP, a framework for prolonged fair traffic prediction. We introduce two new fairness definitions tailored for dynamic traffic scenarios. Fairness in traffic prediction is not static; it varies over time and across regions. Each sensor or urban area can alternate between two states: "sacrifice" (low prediction accuracy) and "benefit" (high prediction accuracy). Prolonged fairness is achieved when the overall states of sensors remain similar over a given period. We define two types of fairness: region-based static fairness and sensor-based dynamic fairness. To implement this, FairTP incorporates a state identification module to classify sensors' states as either "sacrifice" or "benefit," enabling prolonged fairness-aware predictions. Additionally, we introduce a state-guided balanced sampling strategy to further enhance fairness, addressing performance disparities among regions with uneven sensor distributions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that FairTP significantly improves prediction fairness while minimizing accuracy degradation.

交通预测公平性长效公平智能交通

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