arXiv:2412.16235cs.LGmath-ph2024-12被引 4

用因果网络标记提前预警复杂系统临界突变,更准更稳。

Utilizing Causal Network Markers to Identify Tipping Points ahead of Critical Transition

  • 引入因果指标捕捉变量间方向性影响,突破传统方法局限。
  • 在癫痫发作数据上预测准确率显著高于经典动态网络生物标志物。
  • 适合临床疾病预警等需要早期干预的场景。

复杂系统临界突变的早期预警信号可帮助及时干预,避免灾难性状态。传统信号如动态网络生物标志物(DNB)基于方差、自相关等统计特性,忽略变量间的方向性作用,难以揭示内在机制且抗噪声能力弱。本文提出因果网络标记(CNMs)框架,结合因果性指标反映变量间的方向影响。设计两种标记:用于线性因果的CNM-GC和用于非线性因果的CNM-TE;同时构建不同因果指标的功能表征并采用聚类技术识别系统主导群体。通过基准模型与真实癫痫发作数据集验证,CNMs框架在预测临界突变方面表现优于传统DNB。因其通用性与可扩展性,该方法适用于系统全面评估,未来可用于临床疾病中临界点的识别。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Early-warning signals of delicate design are always used to predict critical transitions in complex systems, which makes it possible to render the systems far away from the catastrophic state by introducing timely interventions. Traditional signals including the dynamical network biomarker (DNB), based on statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation of nodal dynamics, overlook directional interactions and thus have limitations in capturing underlying mechanisms and simultaneously sustaining robustness against noise perturbations. This paper therefore introduces a framework of causal network markers (CNMs) by incorporating causality indicators, which reflect the directional influence between variables. Actually, to detect and identify the tipping points ahead of critical transition, two markers are designed: CNM-GC for linear causality and CNM-TE for non-linear causality, as well as a functional representation of different causality indicators and a clustering technique to verify the system's dominant group. Through demonstrations using benchmark models and real-world datasets of epileptic seizure, the framework of CNMs shows higher predictive power and accuracy than the traditional DNB indicator. It is believed that, due to the versatility and scalability, the CNMs are suitable for comprehensively evaluating the systems. The most possible direction for application includes the identification of tipping points in clinical disease.

因果建模临界预警癫痫预测复杂系统

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