提出LDM框架,让长序列预测更准更快。
Breaking the Context Bottleneck on Long Time Series Forecasting
- 分尺度解耦时间序列模式,降低非平稳性影响。
- 在多个基准上超越所有基线,训练时间与内存消耗更低。
- 适合需要长时预测的能源、交通等场景。
长期时间序列预测对经济、能源、交通等领域的规划与决策至关重要,需处理长序列以实现远期预测。尽管模型效率近年提升,但有效利用长序列仍面临挑战,主要因模型在输入过长时易过拟合,不得不缩短输入以维持可接受误差。本文研究多尺度建模方法,提出日志稀疏可分解多尺度(Logsparse Decomposable Multiscaling, LDM)框架,通过解耦序列中不同尺度的模式,降低非平稳性,提升预测能力;同时实现紧凑的长输入表示,提高效率,并简化模型结构。实验表明,LDM在多个长期预测基准上均优于所有基线,且显著降低训练时间和内存开销。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-term time-series forecasting is essential for planning and decision-making in economics, energy, and transportation, where long foresight is required. To obtain such long foresight, models must be both efficient and effective in processing long sequence. Recent advancements have enhanced the efficiency of these models; however, the challenge of effectively leveraging longer sequences persists. This is primarily due to the tendency of these models to overfit when presented with extended inputs, necessitating the use of shorter input lengths to maintain tolerable error margins. In this work, we investigate the multiscale modeling method and propose the Logsparse Decomposable Multiscaling (LDM) framework for the efficient and effective processing of long sequences. We demonstrate that by decoupling patterns at different scales in time series, we can enhance predictability by reducing non-stationarity, improve efficiency through a compact long input representation, and simplify the architecture by providing clear task assignments. Experimental results demonstrate that LDM not only outperforms all baselines in long-term forecasting benchmarks, but also reducing both training time and memory costs.
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