arXiv:2412.17176cs.LG2024-12被引 69

用小波分块混合提升长期时间序列预测效率

WPMixer: Efficient Multi-Resolution Mixing for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

  • 结合小波多分辨率分解与分块混合机制
  • 在多个数据集上超越主流模型,计算高效
  • 适合需要长程依赖建模的工业场景

时间序列预测在气象、电力负荷和金融分析等领域至关重要。近期研究显示,基于MLP的混元模型可作为Transformer的有力替代。然而其性能尚未完全释放。本文提出波段分块混合器(WPMixer),一种新型基于MLP的长期时间序列预测模型,融合分块、多分辨率小波分解与混合机制。模型包含三个核心组件:(i) 多分辨率小波分解,高效提取时频域信息;(ii) 分块与嵌入,扩大历史窗口并捕捉局部特征;(iii) MLP混合,整合全局信息。实验表明,该模型在计算高效的前提下,显著优于当前最先进的MLP与Transformer基线,在多个长期预测任务中展现出优异性能与应用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather forecasting, power load forecasting, and financial analysis. In recent studies, MLP-mixer models for time series forecasting have been shown as a promising alternative to transformer-based models. However, the performance of these models is still yet to reach its potential. In this paper, we propose Wavelet Patch Mixer (WPMixer), a novel MLP-based model, for long-term time series forecasting, which leverages the benefits of patching, multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, and mixing. Our model is based on three key components: (i) multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, (ii) patching and embedding, and (iii) MLP mixing. Multi-resolution wavelet decomposition efficiently extracts information in both the frequency and time domains. Patching allows the model to capture an extended history with a look-back window and enhances capturing local information while MLP mixing incorporates global information. Our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLP-based and transformer-based models for long-term time series forecasting in a computationally efficient way, demonstrating its efficacy and potential for practical applications.

时间序列小波变换MLP混合长程预测

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