arXiv:2412.17358eess.SYcs.RO2024-12被引 2

用鲁棒概率约束优化卫星避障,降低燃料消耗同时确保安全。

Risk-Sensitive Orbital Debris Collision Avoidance using Distributionally Robust Chance Constraints

  • 基于分布鲁棒性设计碰撞概率约束,适用于不确定分布信息有限的情况。
  • 通过CVaR近似实现可计算的保守约束,保障在各种非高斯分布下仍满足安全要求。
  • 适合需要高可靠性避障的航天任务,尤其适用于轨道密集区域的卫星群。

轨道碎片与活跃卫星数量激增导致轨道拥堵加剧,需频繁执行避障机动。为在保障卫星安全的同时最小化燃料消耗,需设置碰撞概率上限的随机约束。然而,准确评估碰撞概率极具挑战,因非线性轨道动力学中的不确定性传播通常仅提供有限信息(如样本或矩估计),且难以处理任意非高斯分布。为此,本文提出一种分布鲁棒的随机约束避障算法,在仅知均值和协方差的前提下,确保所有具有相同统计特征的碎片位置分布均满足碰撞概率约束。为实现计算可行性,采用条件风险价值(CVaR)近似该约束,获得保守且可计算的解。在真实场景启发的卫星-碎片交汇案例中,使用多种不确定性传播方法验证了该控制器的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The exponential increase in orbital debris and active satellites will lead to congested orbits, necessitating more frequent collision avoidance maneuvers by satellites. To minimize fuel consumption while ensuring the safety of satellites, enforcing a chance constraint, which poses an upper bound in collision probability with debris, can serve as an intuitive safety measure. However, accurately evaluating collision probability, which is critical for the effective implementation of chance constraints, remains a non-trivial task. This difficulty arises because uncertainty propagation in nonlinear orbit dynamics typically provides only limited information, such as finite samples or moment estimates about the underlying arbitrary non-Gaussian distributions. Furthermore, even if the full distribution were known, it remains unclear how to effectively compute chance constraints with such non-Gaussian distributions. To address these challenges, we propose a distributionally robust chance-constrained collision avoidance algorithm that provides a sufficient condition for collision probabilities under limited information about the underlying non-Gaussian distribution. Our distributionally robust approach satisfies the chance constraint for all debris position distributions sharing a given mean and covariance, thereby enabling the enforcement of chance constraints with limited distributional information. To achieve computational tractability, the chance constraint is approximated using a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint, which gives a conservative and tractable approximation of the distributionally robust chance constraint. We validate our algorithm on a real-world inspired satellite-debris conjunction scenario with different uncertainty propagation methods and show that our controller can effectively avoid collisions.

轨道避障鲁棒优化概率约束航天安全

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