用深度学习估算气候变量时,如何准确量化不确定性。
Uncertainties of Satellite-based Essential Climate Variables from Deep Learning
- 区分数据固有与模型认知两类不确定性,建立统一评估框架。
- 梳理现有技术并验证在积雪覆盖和陆地水储量中的适用性。
- 为遥感与深度学习交叉研究提供不确定性建模方法参考。
准确的气候变量不确定性信息对可靠的气候建模和地球系统时空演变理解至关重要。近年来,地质科学与气候学界得益于深度学习的快速发展,在提升气候变量产品精度方面取得显著进展。然而,深度学习模型输出结果的不确定性量化尚未被充分采纳。本文综述了基于深度学习估算气候变量所涉及的不确定性类型及量化技术,重点强调在动态多维度气候数据背景下,量化气候变量估计中内在不确定性的必要性。文章首先厘清了随机性与认知性不确定性的定义及其在典型卫星观测处理流程中的作用,继而弥合传统统计学与深度学习在不确定性认知上的差异。随后,全面回顾了现有深度学习不确定性量化方法在气候变量研究中的应用,并讨论了此类跨学科任务在遥感与深度学习需求间适配所需的调整。最后,通过积雪覆盖与陆地水储量两个案例展示研究成果,并提出未来研究方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate uncertainty information associated with essential climate variables (ECVs) is crucial for reliable climate modeling and understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of the Earth system. In recent years, geoscience and climate scientists have benefited from rapid progress in deep learning to advance the estimation of ECV products with improved accuracy. However, the quantification of uncertainties associated with the output of such deep learning models has yet to be thoroughly adopted. This survey explores the types of uncertainties associated with ECVs estimated from deep learning and the techniques to quantify them. The focus is on highlighting the importance of quantifying uncertainties inherent in ECV estimates, considering the dynamic and multifaceted nature of climate data. The survey starts by clarifying the definition of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and their roles in a typical satellite observation processing workflow, followed by bridging the gap between conventional statistical and deep learning views on uncertainties. Then, we comprehensively review the existing techniques for quantifying uncertainties associated with deep learning algorithms, focusing on their application in ECV studies. The specific need for modification to fit the requirements from both the Earth observation side and the deep learning side in such interdisciplinary tasks is discussed. Finally, we demonstrate our findings with two ECV examples, snow cover and terrestrial water storage, and provide our perspectives for future research.
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