arXiv:2412.17853cs.LG2024-12被引 2

用数学定理构建模型,跨市场零样本预测电价

Zero Shot Time Series Forecasting Using Kolmogorov Arnold Networks

  • 基于柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德定理设计网络,学习跨市场通用特征
  • 在零样本场景下预测电价,优于基准模型
  • 适合需要快速适配新电力市场的研究人员

准确的能源价格预测对日前电力市场参与者至关重要,直接影响其决策。尽管基于机器学习的方法在提升预测精度方面展现出潜力,但通常仅适用于训练过的特定市场,难以适应新或未见市场。本文提出一种跨域自适应模型,通过在训练阶段学习不同市场的不变特征来实现能源价格预测。采用核心为柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络的双重残差N-BEATS架构进行时间序列预测。该网络基于柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德表示定理,可有效逼近多变量连续函数。模型通过对抗框架实现跨域适应,在零样本条件下测试了日前电价预测性能。相比基线模型,本框架表现出色。利用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络,模型能更好地捕捉能源价格数据中的复杂模式,从而提升在多样化市场条件下的预测准确性。这一设计不仅增强了模型表征能力,也使其成为更鲁棒、灵活的预测工具,适用于多种能源市场。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate energy price forecasting is crucial for participants in day-ahead energy markets, as it significantly influences their decision-making processes. While machine learning-based approaches have shown promise in enhancing these forecasts, they often remain confined to the specific markets on which they are trained, thereby limiting their adaptability to new or unseen markets. In this paper, we introduce a cross-domain adaptation model designed to forecast energy prices by learning market-invariant representations across different markets during the training phase. We propose a doubly residual N-BEATS network with Kolmogorov Arnold networks at its core for time series forecasting. These networks, grounded in the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, offer a powerful way to approximate multivariate continuous functions. The cross domain adaptation model was generated with an adversarial framework. The model's effectiveness was tested in predicting day-ahead electricity prices in a zero shot fashion. In comparison with baseline models, our proposed framework shows promising results. By leveraging the Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, our model can potentially enhance its ability to capture complex patterns in energy price data, thus improving forecast accuracy across diverse market conditions. This addition not only enriches the model's representational capacity but also contributes to a more robust and flexible forecasting tool adaptable to various energy markets.

时间序列电价预测零样本跨域适配

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。