arXiv:2412.18029cs.CL2024-12ACL被引 2

发现财报电话会内容其实反映的是公司身份,而非真实财务信息。

Same Company, Same Signal: The Role of Identity in Earnings Call Transcripts

  • 用新数据集DEC发现每家公司有20次财报记录,可精准分析波动率变化
  • 提出两个无需训练的基线模型,表现优于所有依赖文本的模型
  • 揭示现有模型主要学到了公司身份,而非真正有价值的财务信号

业绩发布后的波动率预测对投资者至关重要,以往研究常假设财报电话会文本中的丰富语义具有重要价值。为深入探究文本对波动率的影响,我们构建了DEC数据集,该数据集利用此前被忽略的beforeAfterMarket属性和密集的股票代码覆盖,实现了精确的波动率计算。与现有基准相比,DEC中每只股票包含约20次财报记录,而传统数据集仅约两次。基于DEC,我们发现每只股票的业绩后波动率存在显著差异,且呈现独特分布。为此,我们提出两种无需训练的基线方法:事后波动率(PEV)和同股事后波动率(STPEV),二者在DEC及多个基准上均超越所有基于文本的模型。此外,我们发现当前文本表示主要捕捉股票身份而非特定财报的金融意义:同一股票的财报表示相似度远高于不同股票,且基于文本的模型预测结果与历史波动率高度相关。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Post-earnings volatility prediction is critical for investors, with previous works often leveraging earnings call transcripts under the assumption that their rich semantics contribute significantly. To further investigate how transcripts impact volatility, we introduce DEC, a dataset featuring accurate volatility calculations enabled by the previously overlooked beforeAfterMarket attribute and dense ticker coverage. Unlike established benchmarks, where each ticker has only around two earnings, DEC provides 20 earnings records per ticker. Using DEC, we reveal that post-earnings volatility undergoes significant shifts, with each ticker displaying a distinct volatility distribution. To leverage historical post-earnings volatility and capture ticker-specific patterns, we propose two training-free baselines: Post-earnings Volatility (PEV) and Same-ticker Post-earnings Volatility (STPEV). These baselines surpass all transcripts-based models on DEC as well as on established benchmarks. Additionally, we demonstrate that current transcript representations predominantly capture ticker identity rather than offering financially meaningful insights specific to each earnings. This is evidenced by two key observations: earnings representations from the same ticker exhibit significantly higher similarity compared to those from different tickers, and predictions from transcript-based models show strong correlations with prior post-earnings volatility.

波动率预测财报文本公司身份数据集

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