AI直接用观测数据预测天气,12小时内精度显著超越传统模型。
OMG-HD: A High-Resolution AI Weather Model for End-to-End Forecasts from Observations
- 跳过数据同化,直接从地面站、雷达和卫星观测训练
- 12小时预报中温度误差降13%,风速降17%,湿度降48%
- 适合追求高时效、低延迟的实时气象预报场景
近年来,人工智能天气预测(AIWP)模型通过利用再分析数据,性能已达到甚至超过传统数值天气预报(NWP)模型。然而,更少被探索的方法是直接在观测数据上训练AIWP模型,从而提升计算效率并减少数据同化带来的不确定性。本文提出OMG-HD,一种基于AI的区域高分辨率天气预报模型,可直接从地面站、雷达和卫星观测数据进行预测,无需依赖业务数据同化流程。评估表明,在美国本土(CONUS)地区,OMG-HD在长达12小时的预报中优于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的IFS-HRES系统和高分辨率快速刷新模型(HRRR)。相比HRRR,OMG-HD在2米气温上实现最高13%的均方根误差(RMSE)降低,10米风速降低17%,2米比湿降低48%,地表气压降低32%。结果表明,仅依赖观测数据即可实现高效准确的AI驱动天气预报,为未来使用观测数据直接进行业务预报提供了可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In recent years, Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have achieved performance comparable to, or even surpassing, traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by leveraging reanalysis data. However, a less-explored approach involves training AIWP models directly on observational data, enhancing computational efficiency and improving forecast accuracy by reducing the uncertainties introduced through data assimilation processes. In this study, we propose OMG-HD, a novel AI-based regional high-resolution weather forecasting model designed to make predictions directly from observational data sources, including surface stations, radar, and satellite, thereby removing the need for operational data assimilation. Our evaluation shows that OMG-HD outperforms both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution operational forecasting system, IFS-HRES, and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model at lead times of up to 12 hours across the contiguous United States (CONUS) region. We achieve up to a 13% improvement on RMSE for 2-meter temperature, 17% on 10-meter wind speed, 48% on 2-meter specific humidity, and 32% on surface pressure compared to HRRR. Our method shows that it is possible to use AI-driven approaches for rapid weather predictions without relying on NWP-derived weather fields as model input. This is a promising step towards using observational data directly to make operational forecasts with AIWP models.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。