用生成模型精准估计复杂系统参数,特别适合零散的跨时点数据。
Estimation of System Parameters Including Repeated Cross-Sectional Data through Emulator-Informed Deep Generative Model
- 结合物理神经网络与生成对抗网络,构建可快速模拟系统演化的框架。
- 在人口增长、洛伦兹系统等模型上准确还原参数分布,误差显著降低。
- 适用于生物、经济等缺乏连续观测数据的领域,助力小样本建模。
微分方程是描述自然或工程系统演化的核心工具。传统方法依赖观测数据调整方程参数,但在政治、经济、生物等领域,常仅有不同时点、不同个体独立采集的重复横截面(RCS)数据。常规优化方法难以应对此类数据中的异质性,导致信息大量丢失。为此,本文提出一种名为“模拟器引导的深度生成模型”(EIDGM)的新方法,用于处理RCS数据。EIDGM融合基于物理信息神经网络的模拟器,可即时生成微分方程解;以及基于Wasserstein生成对抗网络的参数生成器,能有效模拟真实RCS数据分布。我们在指数增长、逻辑斯蒂种群模型及洛伦兹系统上验证了EIDGM,结果表明其能更准确地捕获参数分布。进一步应用于阿茨海默病中β-40和β-42淀粉样蛋白的实验数据,成功揭示多样化的参数分布形态。这表明EIDGM可广泛适用于各类系统建模,并在数据有限条件下揭示系统运行机制。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Differential equations (DEs) are crucial for modeling the evolution of natural or engineered systems. Traditionally, the parameters in DEs are adjusted to fit data from system observations. However, in fields such as politics, economics, and biology, available data are often independently collected at distinct time points from different subjects (i.e., repeated cross-sectional (RCS) data). Conventional optimization techniques struggle to accurately estimate DE parameters when RCS data exhibit various heterogeneities, leading to a significant loss of information. To address this issue, we propose a new estimation method called the emulator-informed deep-generative model (EIDGM), designed to handle RCS data. Specifically, EIDGM integrates a physics-informed neural network-based emulator that immediately generates DE solutions and a Wasserstein generative adversarial network-based parameter generator that can effectively mimic the RCS data. We evaluated EIDGM on exponential growth, logistic population models, and the Lorenz system, demonstrating its superior ability to accurately capture parameter distributions. Additionally, we applied EIDGM to an experimental dataset of Amyloid beta 40 and beta 42, successfully capturing diverse parameter distribution shapes. This shows that EIDGM can be applied to model a wide range of systems and extended to uncover the operating principles of systems based on limited data.
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