arXiv:2412.20167cs.CV2024-12被引 3

用不确定性量化提升肺结节检测可靠性,确保医生决策安全。

Conformal Risk Control for Pulmonary Nodule Detection

  • 引入共形风险控制技术,生成有统计保证的预测集合。
  • 在多位放射科医师一致标注的结节上达到与医生相当的检出率。
  • 适合医疗决策场景,尤其适用于专家意见不一致的情况。

随着先进AI系统能力提升,定量辅助工具在医疗决策中愈发重要。然而,理解模型输出的预测不确定性对确保可靠透明决策至关重要。本文以肺癌筛查中的肺结节检测为例,为先进检测模型引入一种称为共形风险控制(CRC)的不确定性量化技术。结果表明,具有共形保证的预测集是安全关键医疗领域中极具吸引力的不确定性度量方式,允许使用者通过权衡假阳性数量实现任意置信水平,并提供模型性能的正式统计保障。在至少三位放射科医师共同标注的真阳性结节上,本模型的敏感性与单个放射科医师水平相当,仅略有假阳性增加。此外,我们展示了在存在本体论不确定性(如放射科医师对结节定义不一致)时,直接使用现成预测模型的风险。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

肺结节不确定性量化医疗AI共形推断

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