arXiv:2501.00087stat.MEcs.LG2025-01

从离散观测中恢复高维马尔可夫切换微分过程,揭示注意力缺陷多动障碍脑网络差异。

High-Dimensional Markov-switching Ordinary Differential Processes

  • 两阶段算法:先重构连续路径,再估计参数
  • 在β-混合条件下实现统计误差控制与线性收敛
  • 适用于无法直接实验的生物系统建模,如脑网络研究

我们研究了从离散观测中恢复马尔可夫切换常微分过程的参数问题,其中微分方程为非线性可加模型。该框架广泛应用于生物系统、控制系统等领域;然而,从观测数据重建生成过程的研究仍有限。许多物理系统(如人脑)无法直接实验,依赖观测推断内在机制。本文系统研究该模型,涵盖算法设计、优化保证与统计误差量化。提出两阶段算法:首先从离散样本重构连续样本路径,再估计过程参数。基于隐后验过程截断分析,证明在β-混合条件下,截断过程可逼近真实过程,并提供新的统计误差理论与线性收敛保证。将模型应用于注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)组与正常对照组的静息态脑网络比较,发现两组在转移率矩阵上存在显著差异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological systems, control systems, and other domains; however, limited research has been conducted on reconstructing the generating processes from observations. In contrast, many physical systems, such as human brains, cannot be directly experimented upon and rely on observations to infer the underlying systems. To address this gap, this manuscript presents a comprehensive study of the model, encompassing algorithm design, optimization guarantees, and quantification of statistical errors. Specifically, we develop a two-stage algorithm that first recovers the continuous sample path from discrete samples and then estimates the parameters of the processes. We provide novel theoretical insights into the statistical error and linear convergence guarantee when the processes are $β$-mixing. Our analysis is based on the truncation of the latent posterior processes and demonstrates that the truncated processes approximate the true processes under mixing conditions. We apply this model to investigate the differences in resting-state brain networks between the ADHD group and normal controls, revealing differences in the transition rate matrices of the two groups.

系统识别脑网络随机微分方程

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